Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:36:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe32c…5687 world 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 310d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate19%9W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$1
politics 28% $0
other 19% $0
sports 10% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 19 +0.0% -9.5% 37% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 19 +0.0% -9.5% 37% 0% -9.5%
all 48 -0.6% -10.1% 19% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

310d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses9 / 39
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage310d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 17¢ 12¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $36 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $33 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $12 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $37 $0 -1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $22 −$1 -4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $75 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $3 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $34 +$1 +4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $36 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $33 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $18 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $65 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $35 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $6 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $1 $0 -10%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 23 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 23 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 23 $45 $0 -0%
Will Holger Rune win the 2025 US Open? Aug 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2025 US Open? Aug 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 22 $13 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 22 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 22 $44 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 21 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alex de Minaur win the 2025 US Open? Aug 21 $43 $0 +0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 21 $44 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in August? Aug 21 $43 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31? Aug 20 $4 −$1 -19%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 20 $34 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 19 $84 $0 +0%
Will Andrónico Rodríguez win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 18 $44 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $36 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $33 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $33 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $13 23h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $12 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $3 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $22 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $11 32h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $36 34h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $37 36h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $21 43h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $22 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 88¢ $33 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $28 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $10 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $9 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $3 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $3 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $6 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $8 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $2 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $2 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.00 (match) · 165 history records