Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:27:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E3 0xe32b…626e politics 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$525 (-4%) realized −$164 · open −$361
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%13W / 24L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$325per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$2,200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$889
7 days+$122
14 days−$813
30 days−$319
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 62% +$2,653
other 11% −$1,590
world 9% −$231
tech 7% −$383
finance 5% −$693
economics 3% −$40
crypto 2% −$318
culture 1% −$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +81.6% +64.3% 50% 50% -6.6%
≤30d 37 +21.5% +9.9% 35% 35% -11.9%
≤90d 37 +21.5% +9.9% 35% 35% -11.9%
all 37 +21.5% +9.9% 35% 35% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.9% 35% -11.9%
10% -0.6% 35% -20.3%
15% -10.2% 35% -28.0%
20% -19.0% 35% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$630) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late +48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$644 vs −$362 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$2,200
Realized−$164
Unrealized−$361
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses13 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)37 / 46
History coverage24d
Avg bet$325
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? No 23¢ 38¢ $659 $1,116 +$457 (+69%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $576 $550 −$26 (-5%)
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%? No 33¢ 7¢ $751 $159 −$592 (-79%)
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? No 44¢ 100¢ $68 $154 +$86 (+128%)
Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? No 28¢ 29¢ $96 $98 +$2 (+2%)
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? No 14¢ 6¢ $97 $46 −$51 (-53%)
Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-1%)
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? No 10¢ 2¢ $244 $36 −$207 (-85%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 18¢ 1¢ $29 $2 −$28 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "SAVE Act" or "Save America Act" during June 24 Rally? Jun 25 $153 +$517 +338%
Will Trump say "Dumocrat" or "Dumbocrat" or "Dumacrat" during June 24 Jun 25 $135 +$335 +248%
Will Mark Smith be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? Jun 24 $12 +$37 +322%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during June 24 Rally? Jun 24 $215 −$208 -97%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be below -4% in May? Jun 23 $766 −$744 -97%
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 23 $757 −$731 -97%
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $29B? Jun 23 $139 −$134 -97%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Jun 20 $166 +$369 +223%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 20 $770 +$1,430 +186%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 20 $764 −$748 -98%
Will Richard Gordon Thomson win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? Jun 19 $727 +$1,413 +194%
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 18 $650 −$630 -97%
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 18 $649 −$633 -98%
Will Warsh say "Job Market" during June Press Conference? Jun 18 $90 +$182 +202%
Will Warsh say "Jerome" or "Powell" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $103 +$312 +304%
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu Jun 17 $81 −$78 -97%
Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Con Jun 17 $101 −$98 -97%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 14 $411 −$402 -98%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 13 $168 −$163 -97%
Will Marco Rubio attend the G7 Summit? Jun 13 $146 −$146 -100%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 ( Jun 12 $712 −$693 -97%
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in May? Jun 10 $354 −$352 -100%
Will Gerlando Alonge win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election? Jun 08 $34 +$90 +262%
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral electi Jun 08 $493 +$1,946 +395%
Will Rossella Fini win the 2026 San Giovanni Rotondo mayoral election? Jun 08 $558 +$1,542 +276%
Will Giuseppe Tortora win the 2026 Pompei mayoral election? Jun 08 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $339 −$318 -94%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $96 +$113 +118%
Will Trump say "Fuel" during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $156 −$153 -98%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? Jun 05 $234 −$234 -100%
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary ele Jun 05 $238 −$230 -97%
Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $56 −$54 -97%
Will Ammar Campa-Najjar advance from the CA-48 primary election? Jun 04 $72 +$92 +127%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 03 $724 −$701 -97%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 03 $765 −$747 -98%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 03 $486 −$471 -97%
Will Heidi Hall advance from the CA-03 primary election? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $41 1h
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $54 5h
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $92 24h
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $447 24h
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 14¢ $101 25h
Will Trump say "Dumocrat" or "Dumbocrat" or "Dumacrat" during June 24 BUY No 28¢ $135 2d
Will Trump say "SAVE Act" or "Save America Act" during June 24 Rally? BUY No 22¢ $153 2d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $252 2d
Will Trump say "Hottest" during June 24 Rally? BUY No 16¢ $215 2d
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be below -4% in May? BUY No 39¢ $766 2d
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY No 13¢ $757 2d
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $29B? BUY No 14¢ $139 2d
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? BUY No 44¢ $68 5d
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%? BUY No 34¢ $25 5d
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%? BUY No 33¢ $746 5d
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri SELL No 94¢ $2,200 5d
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 49¢ $764 5d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY No 21¢ $650 8d
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY No 38¢ $649 8d
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu BUY No 38¢ $12 8d
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu BUY No 39¢ $69 8d
Will Warsh say "Job Market" during June Press Conference? BUY No 32¢ $90 8d
Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Con BUY No 32¢ $101 8d
Will Warsh say "Jerome" or "Powell" during June Press Conference? BUY No 24¢ $103 8d
Will Richard Gordon Thomson win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? BUY No 33¢ $727 10d
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer BUY No 45¢ $152 11d
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer BUY No 43¢ $259 11d
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele BUY No 22¢ $236 11d
Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? BUY No 28¢ $99 11d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY No 39¢ $168 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,199.85 · official $2,238.55 · 120 history records