Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:54:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe327…f4e4 crypto 64 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (126 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$172 (+14%) realized +$173 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate63%39W / 23L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day126.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$194
world 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (126 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -0.7% -10.1% 63% 56% +7.0%
≤30d 62 -0.7% -10.1% 63% 56% +7.0%
≤90d 62 -0.7% -10.1% 63% 56% +7.0%
all 62 -0.7% -10.1% 63% 56% +7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover126.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 56% +7.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 31% -3.2%
15% -26.6% 21% -12.6%
20% -33.8% 18% -21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.77 per $1 lost it wins $2.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$173
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses39 / 23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 64
History coverage1d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day126.0
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Down 82¢ 66¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 29 $35 +$6 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $32 +$10 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$4 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$12 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$6 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$5 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $40 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$5 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 28 $32 −$2 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 28 $31 +$6 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$6 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 28 $31 +$19 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 28 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$5 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$4 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 28 $31 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$7 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$13 +129%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 28 $31 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$3 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$3 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 28 $50 +$5 +10%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 28 $2 −$1 -61%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 28 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 28 $102 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 28 $61 +$42 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 28 $8 +$6 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $41 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $43 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $30 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $18 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $20 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $48 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $30 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.22 · official $3.62 · 151 history records