Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:52:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E3 0xe325…34d0 sports 334 markets active 3h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$340 (+9%) realized +$339 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate57%169W / 130L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$370now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$17
14 days+$48
30 days+$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$51
other 12% +$16
crypto 5% +$44
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 157 +8.5% -1.9% 52% 43% -3.6%
≤30d 281 +2.2% -7.5% 57% 46% -2.7%
≤90d 299 +1.7% -8.0% 57% 44% -2.8%
all 299 +1.7% -8.0% 57% 44% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 44% -2.8%
10% -16.8% 34% -12.1%
15% -24.8% 27% -20.6%
20% -32.2% 24% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$370
Realized+$339
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses169 / 130
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions35
Markets (closed)299 / 334
History coverage53d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 299 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? No 85¢ 86¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 33¢ 34¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 93¢ 96¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+4%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 49¢ 52¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? No 33¢ 34¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 46¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? No 96¢ 96¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? No 88¢ 88¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Under 31¢ 34¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Under 68¢ 69¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Iraq 41¢ 42¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Under 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Under 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Iraq leading at halftime? No 92¢ 92¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? No 96¢ 96¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 56¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) Indiana Fever 47¢ 45¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Under 38¢ 34¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 42¢ 36¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Karolina Pliskova 76¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+32%)
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 70¢ 72¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 38¢ 38¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Algeria 38¢ 38¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? No 86¢ 87¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 57¢ 57¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 125 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $10 +$5 +53%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $5 +$3 +53%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $5 +$6 +116%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 16 $10 +$6 +63%
ITF Tauste: Yushan Shao vs Marine Szostak Jun 16 $15 +$2 +12%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +25%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$5 +53%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 +$5 +31%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 +$3 +12%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5) Jun 16 $36 −$35 -97%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 16 $5 +$1 +17%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 +$3 +28%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 +$1 +6%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 +$4 +28%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 +$17 +321%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 +$8 +40%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $31 +$22 +72%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $10 +$4 +40%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$10 +203%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$16 +303%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 +$18 +340%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$33 +642%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$33 +321%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $15 +$37 +242%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$57 +1105%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon BUY Pedro Martinez 48¢ $5 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk BUY Darja Vidmanova 72¢ $5 2h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 76¢ $5 2h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 91¢ $5 2h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Martin Krumich 65¢ $5 2h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Alex de Minaur 65¢ $5 2h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Martin Krumich 65¢ $5 2h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 41¢ $5 2h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet BUY Chloe Paquet 22¢ $5 9h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 47¢ $5 9h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 45¢ $5 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $5 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $5 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $5 9h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY KT Wiz 60¢ $5 9h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY KT Wiz 60¢ $5 9h
ITF Tauste: Yushan Shao vs Marine Szostak BUY Yushan Shao 90¢ $5 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 38¢ $5 9h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $5 9h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $5 9h
ITF Tauste: Yushan Shao vs Marine Szostak BUY Yushan Shao 87¢ $5 9h
ITF Tauste: Yushan Shao vs Marine Szostak BUY Yushan Shao 87¢ $5 9h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) BUY Indiana Fever 47¢ $5 9h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) BUY Indiana Fever 47¢ $5 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $5 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $5 9h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5) BUY Houston Astros 38¢ $5 16h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 33¢ $5 16h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5) BUY Houston Astros 39¢ $5 16h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 55¢ $5 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $369.60 · official $369.61 (match) · 822 history records