Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:37:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe321…9662 other 26 markets active 20h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+4%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate23%6W / 20L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$5
14 days−$8
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$7
world 20% −$8
sports 9% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -33.1% -39.5% 19% 12% -20.7%
≤30d 26 -13.0% -21.3% 23% 19% -9.0%
≤90d 26 -13.0% -21.3% 23% 19% -9.0%
all 26 -13.0% -21.3% 23% 19% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 19% -9.0%
10% -28.8% 19% -17.7%
15% -35.7% 15% -25.6%
20% -42.0% 15% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses6 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage20d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -78%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$8 -53%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Akram Afif: 1+ assists Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Yusuf Abdurisag: 4+ shots Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Team to Take First Corner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Mohammed Muntari: 5+ shots Jun 12 $1 $0 -9%
Christian Fassnacht: 1+ goals Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -69%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 $0 -3%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 -8%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +156%
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -52%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $3 $0 -13%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $4 $0 -9%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1 $0 -14%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $5 $0 -6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 03 $5 $0 -6%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $3 +$3 +94%
Will Nice win on 2026-05-29? Jun 01 $2 +$2 +92%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Bahrain Jun 01 $3 +$3 +111%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 26 $5 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 19h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $1 19h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $6 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 22h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 60¢ $1 44h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 44h
Yusuf Abdurisag: 4+ shots SELL Yes $0 4d
Yusuf Abdurisag: 4+ shots BUY Yes 94¢ $1 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Team to Take First Corner BUY Qatar 92¢ $1 4d
Mohammed Muntari: 5+ shots SELL No 91¢ $1 4d
Christian Fassnacht: 1+ goals SELL Yes $0 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 89¢ $1 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 70¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? SELL Yes $0 4d
Mohammed Muntari: 5+ shots BUY No 98¢ $1 4d
Akram Afif: 1+ assists BUY No 92¢ $1 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $1 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 91¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 4d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 78¢ $5 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 4d
Christian Fassnacht: 1+ goals BUY Yes 59¢ $1 6d
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 11d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records