Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:58:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E3 0xe321…669e crypto 993 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d only
✗ bot/MM pace (100 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$14 (+0%) realized +$15 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%593W / 476L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day100.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$749
7 days−$749
14 days−$867
30 days−$1,122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$373
other 0% −$2
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (100 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -98.7% -98.9% 1% 0% -99.8%
≤30d 1069 -9.6% -18.2% 55% 45% -19.6%
≤90d 1069 -9.6% -18.2% 55% 45% -19.6%
all 1069 -9.6% -18.2% 55% 45% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover100.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 45% -19.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 21% -27.3%
15% -33.2% 5% -34.3%
20% -39.7% 2% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses593 / 476
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1069 / 993
History coverage29d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day100.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1069 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+39%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 28¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-57%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 132 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 55m
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 55m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 59m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $6 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $7 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $4 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $4 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $4 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $7 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.66 · official $6.66 (match) · 3500 history records