Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E3 0xe316…bcf9 weather 692 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$461 (+1%) realized +$448 · open +$13
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%675W / 4L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,504now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days+$21
14 days+$75
30 days+$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 35% +$148
other 22% +$104
sports 13% −$4
politics 12% +$88
world 7% +$53
finance 5% +$32
economics 2% +$6
crypto 1% +$7
culture 1% +$7
tech 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -0.0% -9.5% 99% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 266 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 679 +1.0% -8.7% 99% 0% -8.8%
all 679 +1.0% -8.7% 99% 0% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 0% -8.8%
10% -17.4% 0% -17.5%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$42 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.59 per $1 lost it wins $3.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$1,504
Realized+$448
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses675 / 4
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions13
Markets (closed)679 / 692
History coverage75d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 679 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $139 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $357 +$3 +1%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 17 $99 +$3 +3%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $97 +$1 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $96 +$1 +2%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $275 +$2 +1%
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) Jun 17 $97 +$1 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $139 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $138 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 16 $103 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $96 +$2 +2%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $138 +$1 +0%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 16 $67 +$2 +3%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $124 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $138 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $137 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $138 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $138 +$1 +1%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for th Jun 16 $143 +$1 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $111 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $96 +$1 +1%
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) Jun 16 $96 +$2 +2%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $96 +$1 +1%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 16 $98 +$3 +3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $96 +$1 +1%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $138 +$5 +4%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $68 +$2 +3%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $143 +$1 +1%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 15 $142 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $146 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $145 +$1 +1%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $141 +$1 +1%
Will Lionel Messi attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $142 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? Jun 15 $71 +$1 +1%
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Jun 15 $214 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? Jun 15 $141 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Jun 15 $140 $0 +0%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $281 +$3 +1%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $63 $0 +0%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 14 $193 +$6 +3%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $96 +$2 +2%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $68 +$3 +4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $96 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $134 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $109 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $109 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $109 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $30 1h
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) BUY Austria 97¢ $95 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 100¢ $139 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 99¢ $97 2h
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) BUY Norway 99¢ $97 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 98¢ $96 6h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 99¢ $124 7h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $138 7h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 8h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 8h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $125 8h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 100¢ $139 8h
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY No 98¢ $96 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $138 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $138 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 100¢ $138 14h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $138 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $96 15h
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY No 99¢ $103 17h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $136 19h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 19h
Spread: Jordan (-2.5) BUY Austria 99¢ $136 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $137 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $18 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $11 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $8 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,504.22 · official $1,504.22 (match) · 1919 history records