Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe316…8e62 other 237 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 227L
Whale WR8%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$16
14 days−$26
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$43
sports 22% −$16
politics 10% −$8
culture 7% −$9
economics 6% −$4
crypto 5% −$2
world 4% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 80 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 182 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 237 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 8% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 227
Whale WR (big bets)8%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)237 / 237
History coverage128d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 237 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $141 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $163 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $86 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $250 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 17 $350 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $340 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $575 −$2 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 16 $358 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $195 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 15 $141 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $451 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $540 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $308 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $268 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $327 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $157 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $169 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $701 $0 +0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $279 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $379 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $251 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $186 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $566 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $170 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $110 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $113 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $141 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $54 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 09 $310 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $265 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $205 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $326 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $142 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $239 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $284 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $121 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $288 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $191 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $150 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $172 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $262 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $235 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $846 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $222 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $49 1h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $49 3h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $49 4h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $49 5h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 7h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 8h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $49 10h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $49 12h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $49 12h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 14h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $49 19h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $49 21h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $49 22h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $49 23h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 29h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 31h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 31h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 33h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 37h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 39h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $50 40h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $50 41h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 44h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 46h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $50 47h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1328 history records