Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:02:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe314…eece crypto 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$33 (+10%) realized +$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +67% what you keep after slip
Net edge+67%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%7W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$35
other 12% +$18
sports 6% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+81.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +100.5% +81.4% 33% 33% -18.3%
≤30d 21 +100.5% +81.4% 33% 33% -18.3%
≤90d 21 +100.5% +81.4% 33% 33% -18.3%
all 21 +100.5% +81.4% 33% 33% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +81.4% 33% -18.3%
10% +64.0% 29% -26.1%
15% +48.2% 29% -33.3%
20% +33.7% 29% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +100% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +321% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$16 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses7 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage2d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $53 −$51 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$16 +59%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$104 +392%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $13 −$9 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$36 +667%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$29 +295%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$4 +73%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 0¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $32 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $53 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $13 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $32 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $35 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $7 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $123 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $42 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 15¢ $4 15h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 97¢ $34 35h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 35h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 35h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 35h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 35h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 88¢ $10 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $6 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 37¢ $10 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records