Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:40:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe313…acdb world 46 markets active 3h ago coverage 256d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$24 (-2%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate27%12W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$2
other 27% −$7
politics 7% $0
sports 5% −$19
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.2% -11.5% 25% 0% -11.9%
≤30d 19 +4.1% -5.8% 42% 5% -9.2%
≤90d 19 +4.1% -5.8% 42% 5% -9.2%
all 44 -1.4% -10.8% 27% 2% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 2% -11.8%
10% -19.4% 2% -20.2%
15% -27.1% 2% -27.9%
20% -34.3% 2% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses12 / 32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage256d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 83¢ 82¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $42 −$1 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $44 −$3 -8%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $13 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $46 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $14 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $56 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $41 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $37 +$3 +9%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 30 $39 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $1 $0 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $4 +$2 +67%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $36 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $18 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $40 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $38 −$2 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $20 −$7 -35%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 17 $2 $0 -6%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $45 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 23 $13 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $55 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Nov 20 $23 $0 +1%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 17 $23 $0 -0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Oct 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 10? Oct 10 $15 $0 +1%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Oct 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $38 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $14 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $42 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $42 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $38 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $39 37h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $21 46h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $20 46h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 39¢ $44 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $13 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $13 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $33 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $46 3d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $14 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $11 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 62¢ $46 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 62¢ $46 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $10 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.84 · official $38.84 (match) · 161 history records