Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:39:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe312…f6fc crypto 1304 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$843 (-13%) realized −$843 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate57%742W / 561L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day32.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days−$57
14 days−$57
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$314
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 551 -1.8% -11.1% 57% 55% -11.7%
≤30d 551 -1.8% -11.1% 57% 55% -11.7%
≤90d 1303 -3.2% -12.4% 57% 56% -13.9%
all 1303 -3.2% -12.4% 57% 56% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 56% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 53% -22.2%
15% -28.4% 47% -29.7%
20% -35.4% 29% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$843
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses742 / 561
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1303 / 1304
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day32.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1303 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Up 52¢ 48¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 104 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$6 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.83 · official $3.19 (match) · 3500 history records