Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:21:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E3 0xe311…c119 crypto 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$329 (+17%) realized +$214 · open +$115
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate69%40W / 18L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$520now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$255
14 days+$294
30 days+$295
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$403
crypto 22% −$4
sports 16% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +12.3% +1.6% 63% 63% +27.4%
≤30d 58 +3.4% -6.4% 69% 41% +10.5%
≤90d 58 +3.4% -6.4% 69% 41% +10.5%
all 58 +3.4% -6.4% 69% 41% +10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 41% +10.5%
10% -15.4% 33% -0.1%
15% -23.5% 26% -9.8%
20% -31.0% 16% -18.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.87 per $1 lost it wins $2.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$520
Realized+$214
Unrealized+$115
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses40 / 18
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)58 / 61
History coverage27d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 100¢ $200 $322 +$122 (+61%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-1%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $36 −$31 -86%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $29 −$4 -13%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $19 +$20 +105%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$3 +17%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$7 -70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +46%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$6 +63%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$7 -73%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -86%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$9 +44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $152 +$148 +97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $84 +$65 +76%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $148 +$67 +45%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $40 +$6 +14%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $20 $0 +2%
Will Burkina Faso win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $20 −$6 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 25 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 25 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 25 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 25 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 25 $7 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 24 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 24 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 24 $30 −$5 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 24 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 24 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 24 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 24 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 24 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 24 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 24 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 24 $33 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 24 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 24 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 24 $30 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 24 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 24 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 24 $2 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $121 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $309 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $36 3h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 11¢ $25 3h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $29 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $19 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $81 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $405 37h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $24 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 21¢ $3 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 63¢ $20 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 4d
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 96¢ $17 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $10 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 4d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 70¢ $10 4d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 67¢ $30 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 5d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 78¢ $10 5d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $519.64 · official $519.64 (match) · 147 history records