Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:12:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe30a…5520 world 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-2%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%11W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$9
other 15% −$13
politics 10% $0
economics 5% −$2
crypto 4% +$1
finance 2% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 13 -2.6% -11.9% 23% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 13 -2.6% -11.9% 23% 0% -10.8%
all 41 -7.6% -16.4% 27% 0% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 0% -11.5%
10% -24.4% 0% -20.0%
15% -31.7% 0% -27.7%
20% -38.4% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses11 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage248d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 91¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $117 +$5 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $27 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $42 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 01 $43 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $44 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $55 −$12 -23%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 28 $60 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $69 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $52 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $23 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $6 −$1 -14%
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Jan 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Jan 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Dec 21 $21 −$2 -7%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Nov 20 $1 −$1 -73%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $22 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Nov 14 $21 +$1 +7%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Oct 23 $23 $0 -0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 20 $21 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will Kendrick Lamar be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 19 $6 $0 -1%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 19 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Oct 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 18 $4 $0 -6%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Oct 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 14 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025? Oct 14 $21 $0 -0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 13 $2 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 13 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $43 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 12h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $11 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $31 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $8 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $34 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $27 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $12 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $15 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $42 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $43 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $33 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $10 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $42 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $42 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $1 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $43 17d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $22 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $14 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $8 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $44 18d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 27¢ $14 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 27¢ $1 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 27¢ $18 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 27¢ $9 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 35¢ $55 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $11 20d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $49 20d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $60 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.77 · official $42.77 (match) · 146 history records