Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:03:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe308…40ae sports 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$30 (-1%) realized −$137 · open +$107
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%24W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,087now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$4
14 days−$270
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% +$81
other 24% −$190
sports 24% −$92
crypto 18% +$144
politics 4% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +6.7% -3.5% 60% 60% -6.6%
≤30d 41 -14.7% -22.8% 49% 44% -18.2%
≤90d 50 -11.5% -20.0% 48% 44% -20.8%
all 50 -11.5% -20.0% 48% 44% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 44% -20.8%
10% -27.6% 38% -28.4%
15% -34.6% 28% -35.3%
20% -41.0% 22% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$19 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$1,087
Realized−$137
Unrealized+$107
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses24 / 26
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions16
Markets (closed)50 / 66
History coverage32d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 54¢ 60¢ $605 $678 +$73 (+12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $80 $105 +$25 (+31%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 70¢ 68¢ $49 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 75¢ 97¢ $38 $48 +$11 (+29%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 70¢ 92¢ $35 $46 +$11 (+31%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $27 +$7 (+36%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $22 +$3 (+13%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $24 $21 −$3 (-12%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $21 +$6 (+43%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $20 −$4 (-18%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $6 −$5 (-46%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $2 −$6 (-81%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes $6 $0 −$6 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 22 $44 +$5 +12%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $7 +$13 +206%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -99%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $61 +$9 +15%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $38 −$38 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $38 +$22 +56%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $40 −$39 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $46 −$45 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $37 −$36 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $58 −$57 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $110 −$60 -55%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $22 +$28 +129%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $21 +$10 +46%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $71 +$24 +34%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $17 +$5 +32%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $17 −$16 -98%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $23 −$4 -15%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $15 −$4 -29%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $1 −$1 -91%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $39 +$5 +14%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $344 +$115 +34%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $7 +$3 +43%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $13 +$1 +8%
Dota 2: OG vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $4 +$6 +150%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $5 +$4 +83%
Dota 2: OG vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $20 +$7 +32%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $23 −$4 -15%
Dota 2: by Owl Team vs SoloTeam (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Playo May 24 $18 +$22 +126%
Dota 2: Stray Team vs SoloTeam (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Playof May 24 $9 +$11 +122%
Dota 2: Stray Team vs SoloTeam - Game 1 Winner May 24 $4 +$6 +145%
Dota 2: Stray Team vs SoloTeam (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Playof May 22 $12 −$5 -42%
Dota 2: Stray Team vs SoloTeam - Game 1 Winner May 22 $3 +$7 +230%
Dota 2: Stray Team vs SoloTeam - Game 2 Winner May 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Dota 2: Miposhka Team vs Nix Team - Game 2 Winner May 22 $23 −$21 -93%
Dota 2: Miposhka Team vs Nix Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Pla May 22 $3 −$2 -60%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $18 +$6 +35%
Dota 2: Miposhka Team vs SoloTeam - Game 1 Winner May 21 $6 +$4 +82%
Dota 2: Miposhka Team vs SoloTeam - Game 2 Winner May 21 $11 −$3 -26%
Dota 2: Miposhka Team vs SoloTeam (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Gro May 21 $7 +$6 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 70¢ $28 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $50 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 69¢ $21 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $7 20h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $44 44h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 66¢ $13 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $35 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $70 4d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $7 7d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $38 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $17 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $43 7d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $40 8d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $46 8d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 41¢ $0 8d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 41¢ $14 8d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 8d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $37 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 37¢ $38 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 9d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 64¢ $38 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 55¢ $61 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 47¢ $46 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 10d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 77¢ $10 10d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $5 10d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 52¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,087.43 · official $1,087.63 (match) · 231 history records