Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:50:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E3 0xe308…ab64 crypto 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 500d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate82%42W / 9L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% +$2
tech 17% +$1
other 13% $0
politics 6% $0
sports 5% $0
economics 3% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 51 +0.3% -9.3% 82% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.28 per $1 lost it wins $9.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

500d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses42 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage500d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 03 $51 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? May 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? Apr 02 $43 $0 +1%
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? Mar 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? Mar 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in February? Mar 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in January? Feb 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $42 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? Jan 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? Dec 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $49 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Oct 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Oct 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? Sep 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 02 $17 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? Aug 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? Jul 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 in May? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.24 in April? May 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? May 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May? May 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 03 $10 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Apr 15 $17 $0 -0%
Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will any other candidate win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 09 $14 $0 -0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in March? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Apr 02 $11 $0 +2%
Will Kelvin Banks Jr. be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Mar 23 $16 $0 -0%
Will Carlton Carrington win NBA Rookie of the Year? Mar 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will Oregon win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 18 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 13 $17 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? Mar 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $28 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $46 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $51 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $12 61d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? BUY No 100¢ $38 61d
Will Solana reach $140 in March? BUY No 100¢ $9 91d
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? BUY No 99¢ $43 93d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? BUY No 100¢ $8 120d
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $8 121d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in February? BUY No 100¢ $37 121d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in January? BUY No 100¢ $9 148d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 99¢ $42 150d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $10 180d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $37 181d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? BUY No 100¢ $15 210d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $38 211d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $7 241d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $16 242d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $26 243d
Will Solana reach $350 in September? BUY No 100¢ $9 272d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $12 272d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $27 272d
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? BUY No 100¢ $6 300d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 100¢ $15 301d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? BUY No 100¢ $30 302d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 99¢ $17 334d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? BUY No 100¢ $27 334d
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? BUY No 100¢ $5 363d
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 393d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 394d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 395d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.33 · official $46.33 (match) · 107 history records