Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe306…d100 other 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 511d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,665 (-7%) realized −$3,551 · open −$114
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate66%75W / 38L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$437per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$2,858now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$390
7 days−$244
14 days−$244
30 days−$1,250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$1,350
politics 26% +$1,345
sports 18% −$462
culture 5% −$1,702
tech 2% −$1,300
world 2% −$736
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -25.2% -32.4% 50% 33% -16.7%
≤30d 12 -20.5% -28.0% 50% 17% -19.7%
≤90d 25 -21.2% -28.7% 48% 24% -20.4%
all 113 -1.9% -11.3% 66% 37% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 37% -16.9%
10% -19.8% 27% -24.9%
15% -27.5% 20% -32.1%
20% -34.6% 15% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$540) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$300 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

511d coverage
Net worth$2,858
Realized−$3,551
Unrealized−$114
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses75 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions8
Markets (closed)113 / 121
History coverage511d
Avg bet$437
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 56¢ $1,090 $1,110 +$20 (+2%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $700 $685 −$15 (-2%)
Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? No 94¢ 99¢ $470 $497 +$27 (+6%)
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $211 $210 −$1 (-0%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 50¢ 32¢ $230 $145 −$85 (-37%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 62¢ 39¢ $164 $103 −$61 (-37%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 32¢ $86 $85 −$1 (-2%)
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? No 76¢ 84¢ $21 $23 +$2 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $422 +$78 +18%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $392 −$344 -88%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $125 −$125 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $850 +$112 +13%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $540 $0 +0%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 11 $734 +$34 +5%
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026? May 30 $1,042 −$922 -88%
English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record? May 24 $3,917 −$120 -3%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $710 +$24 +3%
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 24 $60 −$4 -7%
Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026? May 24 $1,003 +$6 +1%
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? May 22 $1,376 +$10 +1%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 17 $315 −$270 -86%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 May 09 $259 −$255 -99%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $810 +$190 +24%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $6 −$1 -17%
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 19 $430 +$370 +86%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $110 −$97 -88%
Will Nottm Forest be relegated from the English Premier League after t Apr 19 $132 −$132 -100%
Benjamin Sesko: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 13 $29 +$2 +7%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $255 +$245 +96%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $265 +$228 +86%
Will Tottenham finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier Leag Mar 24 $186 +$14 +8%
Will the Patient Focus (PF) win a seat in Norwegian Election? Mar 20 $712 −$712 -100%
"Caught Stealing" Rotten Tomatoes score is 85 or higher? Mar 20 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 13 $366 +$44 +12%
Will Tottenham finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier Leag Mar 13 $439 +$11 +3%
Will Oscar Piastri finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Mar 01 $70 +$30 +43%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 05 $99 +$39 +39%
Will Piráti get between 11% and 14% of the vote in the Czech election? Oct 07 $172 +$28 +16%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premi Sep 10 $528 +$43 +8%
Will Nuno Santo be the first EPL manager fired? Sep 09 $1,240 +$15 +1%
Will the Labour Party (Ap) win 27% or more of vote in Norwegian electi Sep 07 $195 +$80 +41%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 31 $164 +$4 +2%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 29 $327 +$6 +2%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-31? Aug 28 $540 +$20 +4%
Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electio Aug 26 $810 +$20 +2%
"Americana" Rotten Tomatoes score is less than 80%? Aug 25 $10 $0 +5%
Will Fulham vs. Manchester United end in a draw? Aug 25 $364 +$41 +11%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-24? Aug 24 $214 −$147 -69%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-23? Aug 23 $95 +$5 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jul 14 $790 −$550 -70%
Will Sali Berisha be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 Jun 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb Jun 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A Jun 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele Jun 09 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the Labor Party win by 20–29 seats? May 05 $26 −$25 -96%
Will PAP win between 84 and 86 seats in the Singapore election? May 04 $27 +$58 +214%
Will PAP win between 78 and 80 seats in the Singapore election? May 04 $60 +$1 +2%
Will PAP win between 81 and 83 seats in the Singapore election? May 04 $646 +$94 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 8¢ $24 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 5¢ $24 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 17¢ $40 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 17¢ $1 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 17¢ $0 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 17¢ $2 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 17¢ $41 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 17¢ $17 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 17¢ $2 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 17¢ $2 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $20 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $392 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $422 2h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 70¢ $700 29h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 50¢ $0 38h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 32¢ $20 42h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 50¢ $10 46h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 32¢ $0 46h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 50¢ $123 46h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 32¢ $0 46h
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 47h
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? BUY Yes 72¢ $7 47h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 50¢ $12 47h
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? BUY Yes 72¢ $14 47h
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? BUY Yes 72¢ $42 47h
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? BUY Yes 72¢ $7 47h
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? BUY Yes 72¢ $11 2d
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 50¢ $54 2d
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 32¢ $66 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,858.40 · official $2,858.40 (match) · 953 history records