Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:50:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2fe…7610 crypto 18 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$14 (-20%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate61%11W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -20.7% -28.3% 61% 22% -34.0%
≤30d 18 -20.7% -28.3% 61% 22% -34.0%
≤90d 18 -20.7% -28.3% 61% 22% -34.0%
all 18 -20.7% -28.3% 61% 22% -34.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.3% 22% -34.0%
10% ← realistic here -35.2% 11% -40.3%
15% -41.4% 11% -46.1%
20% -47.2% 0% -51.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses11 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records