Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:17:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E2 0xe2fe…695d sports 257 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,535 (+9%) realized +$2,976 · open −$441
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%121W / 132L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$504est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$749now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$222
7 days+$677
14 days+$708
30 days+$1,730
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$1,389
other 3% +$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +9.7% -0.7% 37% 37% +10.4%
≤30d 118 +8.7% -1.7% 48% 48% +3.2%
≤90d 253 +4.9% -5.1% 48% 47% -2.5%
all 253 +4.9% -5.1% 48% 47% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 47% -2.5%
10% -14.2% 47% -11.9%
15% -22.5% 46% -20.4%
20% -30.1% 45% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$96 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$749
Realized+$2,976
Unrealized−$441
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses121 / 132
Est. fees paid−$504
Open positions4
Markets (closed)253 / 257
History coverage68d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 253 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 51¢ 76¢ $250 $375 +$125 (+50%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 58¢ $140 $189 +$49 (+35%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner FURIA 65¢ 24¢ $500 $185 −$315 (-63%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 21¢ 0¢ $300 $1 −$299 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 104 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $557 −$300 -54%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $253 +$178 +70%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $458 +$583 +127%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $48 −$47 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $241 −$237 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $98 −$96 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $145 +$247 +170%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $153 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $102 +$314 +307%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $103 +$277 +269%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $204 −$170 -83%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$13 -13%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $71 +$100 +141%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $71 −$70 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $102 +$272 +266%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $46 −$45 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $102 +$220 +216%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $102 +$254 +249%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $101 +$60 +60%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $102 +$146 +143%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $77 +$190 +248%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $102 +$123 +121%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $102 +$107 +105%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $370 +$202 +54%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $187 −$30 -16%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $51 −$50 -97%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $153 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $152 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $101 +$44 +43%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $101 +$91 +90%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $101 +$77 +76%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $208 −$55 -26%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $139 −$137 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $102 −$60 -59%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $31 −$30 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 65¢ $505 25m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $142 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $254 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 21¢ $307 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 58¢ $304 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 42¢ $202 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 51¢ $254 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $253 22h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 24h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $407 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 10¢ $48 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 20¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 25¢ $98 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 49¢ $190 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 38¢ $102 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 36¢ $102 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $43 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 33¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 47¢ $102 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $102 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 24¢ $51 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 100¢ $416 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 31¢ $379 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 24¢ $102 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 8¢ $103 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 35¢ $102 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 33¢ $102 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Monte 7¢ $30 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Monte 24¢ $89 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $749.17 · official $737.14 · 441 history records