Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:09:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E2 0xe2fd…ecf7 sports 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$902 (+0%) realized +$944 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate93%111W / 8L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$1,997per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$426now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$14
30 days+$316
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$291
other 13% +$342
world 12% +$121
politics 6% +$134
economics 1% +$3
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 12 +22.8% +11.1% 92% 17% -9.0%
≤90d 92 +14.4% +3.5% 95% 9% -9.2%
all 119 +11.1% +0.5% 93% 7% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.5% 7% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -9.1% 6% -17.9%
15% -17.9% 6% -25.8%
20% -26.0% 5% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$3,017) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$42 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.79 per $1 lost it wins $3.79
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$426
Realized+$944
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses111 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions3
Markets (closed)119 / 122
History coverage138d
Avg bet$1,997
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $356 $345 −$11 (-3%)
Will Arthur Fils be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $89 $61 −$28 (-31%)
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $23 $20 −$3 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Libema Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Elise Mertens Jun 08 $5,048 +$5 +0%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $61 −$20 -32%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $7,219 +$7 +0%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Emma Navarro May 28 $7,128 +$72 +1%
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 28 $1,138 +$1 +0%
Roland Garros WTA: Daria Snigur vs Peyton Stearns May 27 $7,140 +$7 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Clement Tabur May 27 $384 $0 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Juan Carlos Prado May 26 $7,132 +$7 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $54 +$33 +62%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 24 $1 +$3 +240%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 24 $8,404 +$131 +2%
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul May 23 $6,796 +$69 +1%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Jil Teichmann vs Petra Marcinko May 22 $6,785 +$7 +0%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Borna Gojo vs Jurij Rodionov May 22 $6,109 +$6 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $203 +$2 +1%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Susan Bandecchi vs Viktoria Hruncako May 22 $655 +$1 +0%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Leylah Fernandez May 22 $3,897 +$4 +0%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Mary Stoiana May 21 $923 +$1 +0%
Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud May 21 $2,372 +$2 +0%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Mayar Sherif vs Greet Minnen May 21 $2,303 +$2 +0%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: August Holmgren vs Facundo Acosta May 21 $2,091 +$2 +0%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Emma Navarro vs Iva Jovic May 20 $6,754 +$7 +0%
Geneva Open: Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud May 20 $6,747 +$7 +0%
Geneva Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Learner Tien May 20 $6,740 +$7 +0%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu May 20 $112 $0 +0%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Iryna Shymanovi May 20 $2,300 +$2 +0%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Ayana Akli vs Katarzyna Kawa May 19 $100 $0 +0%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Francesca Jones vs Yelyzaveta Kotlia May 19 $4,451 +$4 +0%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Katherine Sebov vs Viktoria Hruncako May 19 $2,295 +$2 +0%
Hamburg European Open: Jakub Mensik vs Jan-Lennard Struff May 19 $2,255 +$2 +0%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Marie Bouzkova vs Katerina Siniakova May 19 $4,125 +$42 +1%
Geneva Open: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Michelsen May 18 $4 $0 +0%
Bordeaux: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Raphael Collignon May 17 $74 $0 +0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud May 17 $3,144 +$3 +0%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Xinyu Wang vs Lois Boisson May 17 $1,804 +$2 +0%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 17 $110 +$10 +9%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Maya Joint vs Ann Li May 17 $1,325 +$1 +0%
Valencia: Alejandro Tabilo vs Miomir Kecmanovic May 17 $2,995 +$3 +0%
Bordeaux: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Quentin Halys May 16 $3,090 +$3 +0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Learner Tien May 12 $3,203 +$3 +0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Elena Rybakina May 12 $3,200 +$3 +0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jessica Pegula vs Anastasia Potapova May 11 $3,197 +$3 +0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs Iga Swiatek May 11 $1,395 +$1 +0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar May 11 $1,800 +$2 +0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Naomi Osaka vs Diana Shnaider May 10 $1,798 +$2 +0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev May 10 $1,389 +$1 +0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Qinwen Zheng vs Jelena Ostapenko May 10 $470 +$5 +1%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana Cirstea May 10 $2,694 +$3 +0%
Will Jiri Lehecka win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 09 $30 +$15 +50%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Cameron Norrie May 09 $3,160 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $74 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $74 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $149 1h
Will Arthur Fils be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 0¢ $13 2d
Will Arthur Fils be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12d
Will Arthur Fils be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12d
Will Arthur Fils be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 13d
Will Arthur Fils be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 13d
Will Arthur Fils be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 13d
Will Arthur Fils be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 13d
Will Arthur Fils be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 13d
Will Arthur Fils be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 13d
Will Arthur Fils be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 13d
Will Arthur Fils be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 13d
Will Arthur Fils be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 13d
Will Arthur Fils be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 13d
Libema Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 100¢ $22 13d
Libema Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 100¢ $56 13d
Libema Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 100¢ $63 13d
Libema Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 100¢ $100 13d
Libema Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 100¢ $6 13d
Libema Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 100¢ $591 13d
Libema Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 100¢ $1 13d
Libema Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 100¢ $53 13d
Libema Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 100¢ $13 13d
Libema Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 100¢ $1 13d
Libema Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 100¢ $38 13d
Libema Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 100¢ $13 13d
Libema Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 100¢ $1,101 13d
Libema Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 100¢ $6 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $425.84 · official $426.08 (match) · 1266 history records