Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:19:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2f8…8630 sports 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$32 (-2%) realized −$20 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate69%87W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$44
other 22% +$8
crypto 9% −$13
world 2% +$11
finance 2% −$10
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.5% -9.1% 67% 67% -6.6%
≤30d 10 +14.4% +3.5% 70% 70% -2.0%
≤90d 33 -2.1% -11.4% 70% 70% -14.6%
all 126 -0.4% -9.9% 69% 63% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 63% -12.1%
10% -18.5% 45% -20.5%
15% -26.4% 28% -28.2%
20% -33.6% 15% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses87 / 39
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage145d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? No 87¢ 52¢ $30 $18 −$12 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$5 +16%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $43 +$9 +21%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 +$21 +103%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $25 +$16 +63%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 −$7 -67%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 4.5 May 24 $15 +$5 +36%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5 May 18 $15 +$3 +20%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5 May 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 4.5 May 15 $15 +$5 +32%
Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 4.5 May 14 $15 +$3 +22%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 4.5 May 11 $20 +$3 +14%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 May 11 $15 +$6 +42%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 10 $15 +$5 +34%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 4.5 May 10 $10 +$1 +12%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 4.5 May 10 $10 +$2 +16%
Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5 May 10 $10 +$2 +18%
Will FC Tōkyō vs. Tōkyō Verdy end in a draw? May 10 $10 −$10 -99%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 May 09 $30 +$8 +28%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08? May 09 $10 +$5 +50%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $10 +$7 +73%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic May 08 $25 −$25 -99%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 May 06 $25 +$11 +43%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 May 06 $25 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 04 $11 −$11 -96%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $5 +$1 +27%
Miami Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Joao Fonseca Mar 29 $59 +$10 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 20 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 4.5 Mar 20 $30 +$6 +20%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $20 +$12 +59%
Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 Mar 18 $55 +$19 +35%
BNP Paribas Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner Mar 17 $7 +$2 +27%
BNP Paribas Open: Novak Djokovic vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Mar 15 $5 +$2 +33%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 07 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 07 $5 +$1 +23%
Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Wrexham AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $5 +$7 +133%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 02 $5 +$3 +53%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? Mar 02 $5 −$4 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 87¢ $30 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 86¢ $30 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 82¢ $43 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 58¢ $20 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $25 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $41 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $20 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $41 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $25 5d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 27d
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 27d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 27d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 27d
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 73¢ $15 33d
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $15 35d
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $20 36d
Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $18 37d
Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $15 37d
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 75¢ $15 37d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $23 40d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $20 40d
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 70¢ $15 41d
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $20 41d
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $15 41d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $11 41d
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $12 41d
Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $12 41d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $10 41d
Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $10 41d
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $10 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.60 · official $18.62 · 241 history records