Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:59:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2f1…adb7 crypto 342 markets active 1h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$207 (-14%) realized −$207 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate64%217W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$63
14 days−$158
30 days−$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$143
other 27% −$12
sports 21% −$6
tech 5% −$52
politics 1% −$1
economics 0% −$2
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -29.3% -36.0% 35% 35% -54.9%
≤30d 36 -30.8% -37.4% 33% 31% -52.5%
≤90d 100 -7.6% -16.4% 66% 34% -39.5%
all 337 -11.9% -20.3% 64% 34% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 34% -22.7%
10% -27.9% 20% -30.1%
15% -34.9% 14% -36.8%
20% -41.3% 11% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$207
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses217 / 120
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)337 / 342
History coverage250d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 337 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 104 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 +$1 +48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$3 -30%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 +$4 +70%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Canada? Jun 12 $3 +$6 +185%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$9 +172%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $11 +$5 +44%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 06 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$3 +260%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -78%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -56%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 06 $82 −$20 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 06 $26 +$13 +50%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 04 $53 −$51 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $26 −$25 -95%
USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 17 $15 +$3 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 15? Apr 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 15? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 15? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 14? Apr 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 14? Apr 15 $1 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 14? Apr 15 $1 $0 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 13? Apr 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 13? Apr 14 $1 $0 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 13? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 12? Apr 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 12? Apr 13 $1 $0 +44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 10? Apr 12 $1 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 10? Apr 12 $1 +$1 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 58m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 58m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $2 22h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 20¢ $2 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 2d
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? SELL Yes 63¢ $7 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes $1 2d
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $5 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $3 3d
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $3 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Under 22¢ $1 3d
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Canada? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $1 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $1 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 4d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Mexico 19¢ $2 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.97 · official $11.97 (match) · 665 history records