Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:53:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2f0…1fa1 weather 103 markets active 6h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate68%69W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$5
weather 23% −$1
tech 22% −$2
other 6% $0
culture 2% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -0.1% -9.6% 72% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 64 -2.9% -12.1% 81% 0% -12.5%
≤90d 64 -2.9% -12.1% 81% 0% -12.5%
all 102 -6.6% -15.5% 68% 17% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 17% -8.9%
10% -23.6% 13% -17.6%
15% -30.9% 11% -25.5%
20% -37.7% 9% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses69 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)102 / 103
History coverage114d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 24 $45 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 42°C or higher on June 23? Jun 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 23 Jun 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 44°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 43°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 23 Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C or higher on June 23? Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C or higher on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18 Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 96°F or higher on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 17 Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on June Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on Ju Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 6h
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes $11 7h
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes $11 7h
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $22 7h
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes $10 7h
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes $12 7h
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $23 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 42°C or higher on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 23 SELL No 100¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C or higher on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 43°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 44°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 23 BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 23 BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 42°C or higher on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C or higher on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C or higher on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.00 · official $1.00 (match) · 186 history records