Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:15:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E2 0xe2ef…5a1c sports 64 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,440 (-14%) realized −$7,430 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%29W / 32L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$854per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$844est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$936
7 days+$1,588
14 days−$9,894
30 days−$7,860
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$7,870
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -12.5% -20.8% 39% 39% -0.0%
≤30d 61 -7.0% -15.9% 48% 48% -23.3%
≤90d 61 -7.0% -15.9% 48% 48% -23.3%
all 61 -7.0% -15.9% 48% 48% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 48% -23.3%
10% -23.9% 43% -30.6%
15% -31.3% 43% -37.3%
20% -38.0% 41% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$1,056) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$660 vs −$844 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$2,200
Realized−$7,430
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses29 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$844
Open positions3
Markets (closed)61 / 64
History coverage21d
Avg bet$854
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 57¢ 57¢ $1,382 $1,394 +$12 (+1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners Under 63¢ 62¢ $593 $579 −$14 (-2%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 44¢ 42¢ $234 $226 −$8 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $950 −$936 -99%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 174.5 Jun 19 $900 +$1,025 +114%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $900 +$985 +109%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $259 −$254 -98%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) Jun 18 $2,587 +$2,831 +109%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 Jun 18 $409 +$430 +105%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $398 +$453 +114%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $686 −$675 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $500 −$494 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $429 +$610 +142%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,038 +$894 +86%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 16 $415 −$409 -99%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 177.5 Jun 16 $390 −$384 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $284 −$280 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3,000 −$157 -5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2,042 −$1,779 -87%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $249 −$245 -98%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $28 −$27 -98%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 177.5 Jun 14 $419 +$441 +105%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 171.5 Jun 14 $890 +$797 +90%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2,195 −$525 -24%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 13 $884 −$875 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $107 −$105 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $1,271 −$1,254 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $5,070 −$5,000 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $103 −$101 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1,091 +$433 +40%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $561 +$445 +79%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $789 −$777 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $261 −$257 -98%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Canada? Jun 12 $325 −$322 -99%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-6.5) Jun 12 $459 +$446 +97%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) Jun 12 $411 +$450 +109%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5) Jun 12 $344 −$338 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 170.5 Jun 12 $1,150 −$1,133 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 11 $516 +$348 +67%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 11 $1,500 +$1,098 +73%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 108.5 Jun 11 $1,600 +$1,270 +79%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 10 $345 −$340 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $1,532 −$1,508 -98%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 172.5 Jun 10 $431 +$437 +101%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Jun 10 $424 −$417 -98%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 160.5 Jun 09 $495 +$426 +86%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,162 +$1,324 +114%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-5.5) Jun 08 $2,407 −$2,370 -98%
Spread: New York Liberty (-13.5) Jun 08 $3,124 −$3,075 -98%
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 06 $1,146 +$910 +79%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 06 $349 +$449 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $800 22m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $600 23m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $238 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 63¢ $600 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $475 43h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $475 43h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $259 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $900 2d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 174.5 BUY Over 46¢ $900 2d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 47¢ $500 3d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 47¢ $1,000 3d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 47¢ $680 3d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 47¢ $407 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $686 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $398 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $500 3d
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 BUY Over 48¢ $409 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 52¢ $130 4d
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 177.5 BUY Under 46¢ $390 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $519 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 54¢ $120 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 54¢ $165 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $519 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 39¢ $201 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $228 5d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $284 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 46¢ $2,843 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $467 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $710 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 50¢ $230 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,199.83 · official $2,199.83 (match) · 127 history records