Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:22:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E2 0xe2ed…4a7b politics 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 245d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%1W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$402now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 98% −$3
other 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.4% -11.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 8 -2.4% -11.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 8 -2.4% -11.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 10 -1.8% -11.2% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$402
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses1 / 9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage245d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $219 $219 −$0 (-0%)
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $168 $168 −$0 (-0%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 96¢ 97¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $159 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $377 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $229 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $199 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $178 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $169 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2 $0 -18%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $198 $0 -0%
Nothing Ever Happens: Conspiracy Edition Dec 17 $19 $0 +1%
Will Frances Fitzgerald win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 21 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 1h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 1h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 2h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 3h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 5h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 7h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 7h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 13h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 14h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 16h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 17h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 19h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 23h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 24h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 27h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $198 30h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 33h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 34h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 36h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 36h
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? BUY No 96¢ $15 187d
Nothing Ever Happens: Conspiracy Edition SELL Yes 99¢ $19 187d
Nothing Ever Happens: Conspiracy Edition BUY Yes 98¢ $19 224d
Will Frances Fitzgerald win the Irish Presidential Election? SELL No 100¢ $49 244d
Will Frances Fitzgerald win the Irish Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $49 244d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $402.07 · official $402.07 (match) · 27 history records