Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E2 0xe2eb…129f politics 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% $0
sports 24% −$1
other 12% $0
tech 6% $0
world 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
all 17 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage107d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $113 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $113 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $113 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $113 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $113 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $114 $0 +0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 10 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $115 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Mar 26 $115 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 23 $115 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 16 $116 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 13 $116 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Mar 06 $116 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 05 $116 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $116 $0 +0%
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Mar 02 $116 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $113 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $113 17h
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $113 17d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $113 18d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $113 28d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $46 28d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $13 28d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $44 28d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 28d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $113 31d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $113 32d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $113 35d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $113 35d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $114 60d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 60d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $77 60d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $114 62d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $114 62d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $114 68d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $115 68d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $115 76d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $115 77d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $115 83d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $16 84d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $99 84d
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $115 86d
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $115 86d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $115 92d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $116 93d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $116 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records