Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:11:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2e7…885b other 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 633d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate20%13W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$301per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 68% −$13
politics 24% −$14
other 6% +$2
sports 1% +$13
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.4% -9.9% 17% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 18 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 52 -1.5% -10.8% 19% 12% -8.8%
all 65 -1.3% -10.7% 20% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 9% -9.6%
10% -19.3% 9% -18.2%
15% -27.1% 9% -26.1%
20% -34.2% 9% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×3.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

633d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses13 / 52
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)65 / 67
History coverage633d
Avg bet$301
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $19 $0 -2%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $47 $0 +0%
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $16 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $15 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $17 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $32 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $12 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 30 $19 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $16 $0 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $83 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers May 18 $9 +$10 +109%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $78 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $72 $0 -0%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $76 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $157 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $84 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 4? May 06 $36 $0 +0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $78 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $80 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 24 $81 $0 +0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $78 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $81 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $80 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $85 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $82 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $78 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 18 $83 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $79 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $82 $0 -0%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $10 +$9 +86%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $10 +$7 +70%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $7 +$7 +108%
Utah vs. Kraken Apr 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Rangers Apr 02 $29 −$3 -11%
Canucks vs. Avalanche Apr 02 $14 −$14 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 02 $21 +$2 +9%
Based FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 01 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $19 16h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 17h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 31h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 32h
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $16 2d
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $16 2d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $15 3d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 3d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $18 4d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $18 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $28 5d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 7d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 8d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 9d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $14 10d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 10d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $12 11d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $12 11d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $12 14d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $12 14d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 15d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 15d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 16d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 16d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 17d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.44 · official $64.44 (match) · 362 history records