Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:00:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2e3…dc0e sports 49 markets active 14h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$305 (-11%) realized −$305 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%24W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day33.2pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$358
other 13% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -24.4% -31.6% 49% 41% -22.8%
≤30d 49 -24.4% -31.6% 49% 41% -22.8%
≤90d 49 -24.4% -31.6% 49% 41% -22.8%
all 49 -24.4% -31.6% 49% 41% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.6% 41% -22.8%
10% ← realistic here -38.1% 29% -30.2%
15% -44.1% 14% -36.9%
20% -49.6% 8% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$29 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$305
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses24 / 25
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage3d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day33.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $78 −$77 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $72 +$6 +8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $76 −$74 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $62 −$60 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $19 −$9 -46%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $70 −$69 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $55 +$15 +27%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $103 −$3 -3%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $22 +$15 +68%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $88 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $38 +$13 +34%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $136 −$16 -12%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $172 +$15 +9%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 −$40 -65%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $103 +$18 +18%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $60 −$22 -37%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $79 +$10 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $99 +$4 +4%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $113 +$20 +18%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $106 +$29 +27%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $10 −$1 -8%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $48 +$13 +26%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $79 +$16 +20%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $57 −$25 -44%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $24 +$9 +35%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $51 −$23 -46%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $35 +$21 +60%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $34 +$11 +31%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $56 +$23 +41%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $26 +$9 +36%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $24 +$9 +36%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $56 +$37 +66%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $49 +$29 +59%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $102 +$22 +21%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $61 +$7 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $27 +$7 +24%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $78 13h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 83¢ $78 14h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 75¢ $72 14h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 34¢ $76 14h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 31¢ $51 14h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 69¢ $10 15h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Under 26¢ $10 15h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 58¢ $70 15h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $70 15h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 77¢ $55 15h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $19 15h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $25 16h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL Vitality 88¢ $100 16h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 89¢ $103 16h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 32¢ $38 18h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 18¢ $22 18h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 58¢ $87 18h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 56¢ $88 18h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 53¢ $51 19h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 38¢ $38 19h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 26¢ $10 20h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 38¢ $29 20h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL MOUZ 52¢ $115 20h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 37¢ $47 20h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 48¢ $49 20h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $96 27h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $91 27h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 55¢ $91 27h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $60 27h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $21 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 124 history records