Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:49:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2e2…38a0 other 79 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$348 (+2%) realized +$409 · open −$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate93%41W / 3L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$3,021now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$46
14 days−$390
30 days+$368
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$62
world 21% −$441
crypto 10% +$649
tech 5% +$19
sports 2% +$8
politics 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +1.4% -8.2% 93% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 41 +1.4% -8.2% 95% 7% -6.5%
≤90d 44 +0.9% -8.7% 93% 7% -6.9%
all 44 +0.9% -8.7% 93% 7% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 7% -6.9%
10% -17.5% 2% -15.8%
15% -25.4% 2% -24.0%
20% -32.7% 0% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$197 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$3,021
Realized+$409
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses41 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions35
Markets (closed)44 / 79
History coverage42d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $464 $471 +$7 (+2%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $426 $433 +$7 (+2%)
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $395 $399 +$5 (+1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $213 $222 +$9 (+4%)
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $199 $200 +$1 (+0%)
New pandemic in 2026? Yes 13¢ 8¢ $246 $163 −$82 (-34%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $155 $156 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 90¢ 98¢ $136 $148 +$12 (+9%)
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $110 $110 −$0 (-0%)
Will FalleN win a S-Tier event before June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? No 94¢ 95¢ $65 $65 +$1 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+7%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $292 +$8 +3%
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $200 $0 +0%
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $130 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary e Jun 24 $80 $0 +0%
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $145 −$2 -2%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $587 +$13 +2%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $430 +$13 +3%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $99 +$1 +1%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $35 +$1 +3%
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $194 +$6 +3%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $10 $0 +2%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $48 +$2 +3%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $197 +$3 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $464 −$464 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $88 +$12 +13%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $47 +$3 +6%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +6%
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Vitality qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $93 +$4 +5%
Will Team Spirit qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $144 +$4 +3%
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $99 +$1 +2%
Will PARIVISION reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $120 +$2 +1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 19, 2026? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $80 $0 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $86 +$14 +17%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $197 +$3 +1%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1,335 +$39 +3%
Will G2 qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Astralis reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 09 $48 +$3 +7%
Will GamerLegion win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $99 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $2,488 +$12 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1,431 +$668 +47%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $98 +$2 +2%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $491 +$9 +2%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026? May 30 $696 +$4 +1%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 21 $372 −$125 -34%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? May 19 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19? May 19 $1,113 +$117 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 25m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? BUY Yes 97¢ $97 25m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? BUY Yes 97¢ $49 25m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 25m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 77¢ $8 28m
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the Ecuador vs Germany BUY Yes 97¢ $10 39m
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 100¢ $0 42m
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 43m
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $10 43m
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 100¢ $16 47m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $7 1h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 100¢ $17 1h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $110 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $7 2h
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary e SELL Yes 91¢ $80 15h
Will FalleN win a S-Tier event before June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 21h
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 100¢ $100 21h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $97 21h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 22h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 23h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 23h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 23h
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $142 40h
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 3d
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 100¢ $100 3d
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,020.98 · official $3,020.98 (match) · 238 history records