Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:14:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E2 0xe2de…cfa6 weather 124 markets active 2h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%116W / 6L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$10
politics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
sports 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 57 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 108 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 122 +0.2% -9.4% 95% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×70.76 per $1 lost it wins $70.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$227
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses116 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 124
History coverage122d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $227 $227 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $225 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 23 $227 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $226 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $167 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $63 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 20 $225 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $226 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 18 $82 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $226 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $225 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $223 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $54 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $215 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 10? Jun 10 $224 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 9? Jun 10 $223 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $222 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $223 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 8? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $193 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 7? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $221 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $183 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on June 6? Jun 06 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 06 $187 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 5? Jun 05 $124 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $111 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 3? Jun 04 $107 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 2? Jun 03 $77 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 2? Jun 03 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 2? Jun 02 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 2? Jun 02 $141 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $82 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 1? Jun 01 $142 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 1? Jun 01 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 31? Jun 01 $81 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on May 31? Jun 01 $142 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 30? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on May 30? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 30? May 31 $218 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 29? May 30 $218 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $227 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $225 21h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $227 26h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $226 44h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $63 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $167 3d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $59 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $225 4d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $226 4d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $15 6d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $67 6d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $70 8d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $226 8d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $225 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $223 9d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $37 10d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $97 10d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $54 10d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $215 11d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $97 11d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $224 13d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $223 14d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $222 14d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $223 14d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $34 15d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $193 16d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $30 16d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $221 17d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $183 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.31 · official $227.31 (match) · 249 history records