Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:32:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

E2 0xe2dd…3ff9 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$45 (-3%) realized −$24 · open −$21

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip

Net edge-7%after slip

Net WR80%break-even

Win rate80%4W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$231per market

Trades / day2.9pace

Fees−$8est.

Kalshi-fit71%portable

Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +80%

net ROI/market (all)-6.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+3.2%	-6.6%	80%	80%	-12.9%
≤30d	5	+3.2%	-6.6%	80%	80%	-12.9%
≤90d	5	+3.2%	-6.6%	80%	80%	-12.9%
all	5	+3.2%	-6.6%	80%	80%	-12.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-6.6%	80%	-12.9%
10%	-15.6%	60%	-21.2%
15%	-23.7%	20%	-28.8%
20%	-31.2%	0%	-35.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 44% · top 2 64% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -4% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$73 vs −$345 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.85 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$149

Realized−$24

Unrealized−$21

Win rate (resolved)80%

Wins / losses4 / 1

Est. fees paid−$8

Open positions2

Markets (closed)5 / 7

History coverage4d

Avg bet$231

Trades / day2.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	67¢	66¢	$150	$149	−$1 (-1%)
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner	MOUZ	48¢	0¢	$20	$0	−$20 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 0.5	Jun 26	$151	+$60	+40%
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	Jun 26	$201	+$57	+28%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C	Jun 25	$399	+$129	+32%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$347	−$345	-100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q	Jun 23	$300	+$47	+16%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will United States win on 2026-07-01?	BUY Yes	67¢	$151	37m
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner	BUY MOUZ	48¢	$20	1h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner	SELL Natus Vincere	25¢	$21	1h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner	BUY Natus Vincere	59¢	$51	1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	BUY Sweden	77¢	$201	12h
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 0.5	BUY Over	71¢	$151	16h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C	BUY Team Spirit	75¢	$399	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	83¢	$347	2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q	SELL Team Spirit	100¢	$347	2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q	BUY Team Spirit	86¢	$300	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.90 · official $148.90 (match) · 13 history records