Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:24:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E2 0xe2db…31ca other 164 markets active 1h ago coverage 315d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,089 (-6%) realized −$1,077 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%63W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$216
7 days+$608
14 days+$560
30 days+$560
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$571
sports 23% −$134
crypto 20% −$2,099
economics 7% +$568
world 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +21.9% +10.3% 50% 50% +15.9%
≤30d 54 +18.9% +7.6% 50% 48% +7.1%
≤90d 54 +18.9% +7.6% 50% 48% +7.1%
all 162 -4.8% -13.9% 39% 36% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 36% -15.8%
10% -22.1% 35% -23.8%
15% -29.6% 35% -31.2%
20% -36.5% 34% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$140 vs −$101 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

315d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$1,077
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses63 / 99
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)162 / 164
History coverage315d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 96 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $81 −$80 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $82 +$141 +172%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $108 +$192 +177%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $41 −$40 -98%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $45 −$44 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $109 +$111 +101%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 26 $48 +$208 +432%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $96 +$104 +108%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $75 −$74 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$75 +150%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $202 +$248 +123%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Second half draw? Jun 23 $18 −$18 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $50 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $50 +$100 +197%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $102 +$77 +76%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 +$65 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $153 +$331 +216%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $101 −$92 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$11 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $71 +$162 +226%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$6 +119%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$97 +474%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +12%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $52 −$51 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 50¢ $81 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 42¢ $203 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 47¢ $102 7h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $16 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 21h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $82 26h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 16¢ $41 27h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 36¢ $43 28h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 42¢ $45 28h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $65 28h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 2d
Türkiye leading at halftime? SELL Yes 86¢ $256 2d
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 16¢ $48 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $109 2d
Türkiye to score first vs. United States? AND Will United States win o BUY 19¢ $100 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $91 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $5 2d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $75 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 35¢ $52 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $50 3d
Korea Republic leading at halftime? BUY Yes 30¢ $52 3d
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY Yes 30¢ $52 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $100 3d
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 3d
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $50 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Second half draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 33¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.31 · official $38.31 (match) · 261 history records