Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:48:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2da…2038 politics 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$46 (-0%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate5%5W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$12
politics 41% −$14
sports 4% −$20
crypto 4% −$1
world 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 102 -2.4% -11.7% 2% 1% -9.7%
all 110 -2.8% -12.0% 5% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 3% -9.7%
10% -20.5% 3% -18.3%
15% -28.1% 2% -26.2%
20% -35.2% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×9.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses5 / 105
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 111
History coverage114d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $25 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $424 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $20 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $273 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? Jun 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $32 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $36 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $22 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $31 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $40 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $31 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $23 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $427 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $238 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $217 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $175 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $189 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $218 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $219 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $235 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $213 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 20 $210 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $234 −$1 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 17 $703 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $213 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 15 $205 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $470 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 13 $207 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $228 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $211 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $200 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $169 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $201 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $191 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $219 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $190 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $440 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $488 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $179 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $440 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 21 $215 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $714 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $234 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $185 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 14h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 21h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 25h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 39h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 44h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 2d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 2d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 7d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $24 10d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $24 11d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $25 11d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $25 11d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 11d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 12d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 12d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 14d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $36 14d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $36 16d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 20d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 20d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 20d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 21d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 21d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 21d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $31 22d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $31 23d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 23d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 23d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $225 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.98 · official $35.98 (match) · 311 history records