Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:25:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E2 0xe2d7…da62 sports 295 markets active 0h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6,718 (+4%) realized +$6,736 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%115W / 178L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$585per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1,035est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$582now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,418
7 days−$3,389
14 days+$2,042
30 days+$2,042
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$2,075
other 4% +$3,555
world 1% −$855
crypto 0% −$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -11.4% -19.9% 30% 30% -14.6%
≤30d 107 -2.5% -11.8% 35% 35% -4.7%
≤90d 107 -2.5% -11.8% 35% 35% -4.7%
all 293 -0.8% -10.2% 39% 37% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 37% -6.6%
10% -18.8% 37% -15.5%
15% -26.7% 35% -23.7%
20% -33.9% 34% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$700) neutral
Persistence
early +22% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$690 vs −$420 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$582
Realized+$6,736
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses115 / 178
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$1,035
Open positions2
Markets (closed)293 / 295
History coverage232d
Avg bet$585
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 293 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot Raphael Perot 49¢ 48¢ $300 $294 −$6 (-2%)
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla Oriol Roca Batalla 46¢ 44¢ $300 $288 −$12 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $236 +$713 +303%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $184 −$180 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $600 +$428 +71%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $220 +$381 +174%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $1,079 −$625 -58%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $3,080 −$258 -8%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $663 −$648 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $103 −$16 -16%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 16 $143 −$15 -10%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $646 −$633 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $141 −$138 -98%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $306 −$156 -51%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $440 −$430 -98%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $204 −$186 -91%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $507 +$423 +83%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $204 −$200 -98%
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 16 $508 −$39 -8%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $435 −$26 -6%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $561 −$550 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $1,058 −$1,039 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $154 +$553 +360%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,367 −$855 -63%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $246 +$834 +340%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $306 +$622 +203%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $203 +$224 +110%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $136 +$497 +365%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $204 −$204 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,015 +$488 +48%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 15 $330 +$436 +132%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $512 −$502 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $306 −$21 -7%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $358 −$317 -89%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$368 +359%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $302 −$296 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $194 −$190 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2,625 +$3,760 +143%
Will Iraq vs. Venezuela end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Franco Agamenone Jun 14 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $204 −$204 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 14 $305 −$305 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 14 $385 −$385 -100%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 14 $395 −$395 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 14 $130 −$130 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 14 $490 −$490 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 81¢ $16 1m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 79¢ $933 2m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 19¢ $184 38m
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot BUY Raphael Perot 49¢ $305 39m
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 46¢ $305 40m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 19¢ $205 47m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 19¢ $31 48m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 89¢ $1,028 48m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 51¢ $600 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Houston Astros 95¢ $601 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 34¢ $220 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 20¢ $102 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 17¢ $102 2h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 16¢ $423 2h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 30¢ $490 2h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 43¢ $487 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $978 3h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 16¢ $381 3h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 17¢ $18 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $399 4h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 27¢ $264 4h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 8¢ $86 5h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $128 5h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 31¢ $646 5h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $141 6h
Senegal to score first vs. France? BUY Yes 35¢ $153 8h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $440 9h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny SELL Alan Wazny 16¢ $13 13h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Alan Wazny 34¢ $204 13h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 99¢ $929 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $581.75 · official $581.75 (match) · 758 history records