Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:37:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

E2 0xe2d4…c45a other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL −$101 (-14%) realized −$96 · open −$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip

Net edge-64%after slip

Net WR14%break-even

Win rate14%4W / 25L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$23per market

Trades / day14.5pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit35%portable

Net worth$487now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +14%

net ROI/market (all)-60.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	29	-56.4%	-60.5%	14%	14%	-53.2%
≤30d	29	-56.4%	-60.5%	14%	14%	-53.2%
≤90d	29	-56.4%	-60.5%	14%	14%	-53.2%
all	29	-56.4%	-60.5%	14%	14%	-53.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover14.5 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-60.5%	14%	-53.2%
10%	-64.3%	14%	-57.7%
15%	-67.8%	10%	-61.8%
20%	-70.9%	10%	-65.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 60% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -56% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -42% → late -70% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$15 vs −$7 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.38 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$487

Realized−$96

Unrealized−$5

Win rate (resolved)14%

Wins / losses4 / 25

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)29 / 31

History coverage2d

Avg bet$23

Trades / day14.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 29 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	63¢	62¢	$247	$245	−$2 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	45¢	44¢	$244	$242	−$3 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	Jun 22	$20	+$12	+57%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$20	+$13	+62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Jun 22	$2	−$2	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Jun 22	$2	−$2	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Jun 22	$2	+$1	+34%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia?	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$21	−$20	-97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 21	$20	−$20	-98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan?	Jun 20	$8	−$8	-97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan?	Jun 20	$7	−$7	-97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan?	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan?	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 0 Japan?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire?	Jun 20	$5	+$37	+712%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?	Jun 20	$4	−$4	-97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Sweden?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Sweden?	Jun 20	$8	−$8	-97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden?	Jun 20	$6	−$6	-97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$1	−$1	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	63¢	$250	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	45¢	$248	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	BUY Down	22¢	$2	8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$2	8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$3	8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	BUY Down	72¢	$2	8h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia?	BUY Yes	7¢	$5	26h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	BUY Yes	17¢	$5	26h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	BUY Yes	15¢	$5	26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	61¢	$20	26h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	BUY Cabo Verde	63¢	$10	26h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	BUY Cabo Verde	63¢	$10	26h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	4¢	$21	29h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Saudi Arabia	47¢	$20	29h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan?	BUY Yes	11¢	$8	37h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan?	BUY Yes	9¢	$7	37h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan?	BUY Yes	15¢	$10	37h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan?	BUY Yes	16¢	$10	37h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 0 Japan?	BUY Yes	6¢	$5	37h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	10¢	$4	41h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	8¢	$5	41h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	4¢	$5	41h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	8¢	$5	41h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	12¢	$5	41h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	41h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	20¢	$5	47h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Sweden?	BUY Yes	2¢	$5	47h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Sweden?	BUY Yes	3¢	$8	47h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden?	BUY Yes	6¢	$5	2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden?	BUY Yes	8¢	$6	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $486.79 · official $486.79 (match) · 38 history records