Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:01:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

E2 0xe2d0…7bbf sports 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 227d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$28,105 (+29%) realized +$23,281 · open +$4,824

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip

Net edge-11%after slip

Net WR62%break-even

Win rate62%15W / 9L

Whale WR83%big bets

Drawdown23%max

Avg bet$3,836per market

Trades / day0.6pace

Fees−$364est.

Kalshi-fit72%portable

Net worth$13,669now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$9,018

7 days+$23,288

14 days+$25,268

30 days+$25,268

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)-1.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+79.9%	+62.8%	100%	100%	+52.7%
≤30d	7	+83.5%	+66.0%	100%	100%	+54.5%
≤90d	15	+27.8%	+15.7%	67%	67%	+39.8%
all	24	+8.9%	-1.5%	62%	62%	+21.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.6 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-1.5%	62%	+21.5%
10% ← realistic here	-10.9%	62%	+9.9%
15%	-19.5%	54%	-0.7%
20%	-27.4%	33%	-10.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +54% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +9% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 83% (≥$6,003) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -31% → late +49% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$2,782 vs −$1,326 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.5 per $1 lost it wins $3.5

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage

Net worth$13,669

Realized+$23,281

Unrealized+$4,824

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses15 / 9

Whale WR (big bets)83%

Est. fees paid−$364

Open positions1

Markets (closed)24 / 25

History coverage227d

Avg bet$3,836

Trades / day0.6

Drawdown23%

Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 24 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 3.5	Under	49¢	76¢	$8,845	$13,669	+$4,824 (+55%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Games Total: O/U 3.5	Jun 28	$9,103	+$5,882	+65%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$6,003	+$3,136	+52%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$5,607	+$3,195	+57%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$6,949	+$2,848	+41%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$3,141	+$5,812	+185%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants	Jun 25	$3,040	+$2,414	+79%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$1,883	+$1,980	+105%
Valorant: T1 vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs	May 08	$500	+$838	+168%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs	May 08	$656	−$651	-99%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?	May 08	$498	+$659	+132%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner	Apr 10	$95	−$93	-98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner	Apr 10	$1,700	−$1,678	-99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner	Apr 10	$923	+$306	+33%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner	Apr 08	$849	−$833	-98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner	Apr 08	$1,000	−$982	-98%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3)	Jan 15	$16,587	+$6,210	+37%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner	Jan 15	$6,863	−$6,863	-100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner	Jan 15	$1,393	+$684	+49%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs Ultra Prime (BO3)	Jan 15	$5,400	+$1,330	+25%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs Ultra Prime - Game 2 Winner	Jan 15	$2,801	+$1,016	+36%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs Ultra Prime - Game 1 Winner	Jan 15	$11,100	+$5,421	+49%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1	Jan 08	$301	−$301	-100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner	Nov 13	$399	−$399	-100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO3)	Nov 13	$135	−$135	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Games Total: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	48¢	$77	1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	48¢	$56	1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	48¢	$48	1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	48¢	$184	1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	48¢	$160	1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	48¢	$107	1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	48¢	$33	1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	48¢	$92	1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	48¢	$18	1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	48¢	$1	1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	48¢	$39	1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	47¢	$81	1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	49¢	$8,072	2h
Games Total: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	100¢	$14,985	2h
Games Total: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	60¢	$3,643	5h
Games Total: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	60¢	$5,460	5h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	65¢	$10	31h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	65¢	$5,993	31h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	63¢	$5,607	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	70¢	$6,949	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	34¢	$82	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	34¢	$1,020	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	34¢	$1,020	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	34¢	$1,020	3d
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants	BUY San Francisco Giants	55¢	$3,040	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	48¢	$1,883	11d
Valorant: T1 vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs	SELL FULL SENSE	100¢	$1,338	50d
Valorant: T1 vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs	BUY FULL SENSE	37¢	$500	50d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs	BUY Paper Rex	75¢	$656	50d
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?	SELL Under	100¢	$1,157	50d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,668.62 · official $10,681.44 · 157 history records