Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E2 0xe2d0…6332 other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,629 (-72%) realized −$2,618 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -74% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -76% what you keep after slip
Net edge-76%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%3W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$426now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,991
14 days−$1,991
30 days−$2,639
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$1,443
crypto 29% −$800
sports 12% −$407
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-76.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -72.1% -74.7% 20% 20% -86.4%
≤30d 16 -73.8% -76.3% 19% 19% -89.4%
≤90d 16 -73.8% -76.3% 19% 19% -89.4%
all 16 -73.8% -76.3% 19% 19% -89.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -76.3% 19% -89.4%
10% -78.6% 19% -90.4%
15% -80.6% 19% -91.3%
20% -82.5% 0% -92.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -88% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -74% · $-wt -88% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$211 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$426
Realized−$2,618
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses3 / 13
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 22
History coverage18d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $200 $192 −$8 (-4%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $37 $35 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$38 +38%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $152 −$150 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $283 −$275 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,302 −$1,265 -97%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $648 −$648 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $38 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $206 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 9¢ $51 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 5d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $206 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,029 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $118 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 7d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $26 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 6¢ $51 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? A BUY 11¢ $51 7d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $44 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 7d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $240 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $426.02 · official $426.02 (match) · 38 history records