Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:31:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2ce…49f9 world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate43%15W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% +$5
other 11% −$13
politics 10% +$1
sports 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.3% -8.4% 25% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 21% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 21% 0% -8.9%
all 35 -7.6% -16.4% 43% 6% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 6% -10.4%
10% -24.4% 0% -18.9%
15% -31.7% 0% -26.8%
20% -38.4% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 61% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses15 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage470d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 95¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $106 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $49 +$3 +6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $44 +$3 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 11 $48 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $48 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $9 $0 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $49 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $34 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 -7%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 06 $1 $0 +4%
Will another person win the South Korean election? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 25 $11 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 23 $11 $0 +1%
Will Cristian-Vasile Terheș advance to the Romanian Presidential Elect Apr 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 19 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Giants make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 16 $1 $0 -5%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 47.5% and 47.9% on March 28? Mar 30 $14 $0 +1%
2025 March hottest on record? Mar 28 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28? Mar 27 $14 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28? Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 24 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 22 $2 $0 -8%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 21 $14 $0 +1%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 21 $2 $0 +19%
Oregon State vs. St. Mary's Mar 21 $14 +$2 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $53 57m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $53 10h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $53 13h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $53 18h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $54 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 36h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 39h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $47 44h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 89¢ $44 46h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $45 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $6 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $48 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $48 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $48 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 44¢ $37 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 44¢ $37 5d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $48 5d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $48 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $22 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $22 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $11 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 34¢ $11 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 9d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 9d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 9d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.45 · official $53.45 (match) · 97 history records