Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:49:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E2
0xe2cd…c6e7
sports · 168 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$15 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$15 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses105 / 58
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)163 / 168
History coverage31d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 5 History 163 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of June? No 9¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will the match end in a draw? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Owen Goodman: 2+ saves No 100¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June? No 83¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $272 in June? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Edin Džeko: 3+ shots on target Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Edin Džeko: 1+ assists Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $205? Jun 12 $1 $0 -35%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+6.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon achieve the fastest lap in Practice 2 at the 2026 F1 Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Game 2: Any Player Rampage? Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Ian Happ: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Michael Busch: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Moisés Ballesteros: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Pete Crow-Armstrong: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Aaron Lukas as the next Director of National Intel Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Elise Stefanik as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce John Eisenberg as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Chris Stewart as the next Director of National Int Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Sebastian Gorka as the next Director of National I Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Amaryllis Fox Kennedy as the next Director of Nati Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Robert O’Brien as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Derek Harvey as the next Director of National Inte Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Tom Cotton as the next Director of National Intell Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kash Patel as the next Director of National Intell Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Devin Nunes as the next Director of National Intel Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Stephen Miller as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Global Esports (-3.5) vs XLG Gaming (+3.5) Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -26%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $190 in June? Jun 10 $1 $0 -45%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -86%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -53%
Will Meta (META) close above $620 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +7%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $230 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: GamerLegion (-3.5) vs Astralis (+3.5) Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will NRG qualify to Stage 2 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 -1%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $250-$255 on the final day of trading of t Jun 05 $2 $0 +3%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -86%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $280-$285 on the final day of trading of t Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $290-$295 on the final day of trading of t Jun 05 $1 $0 -1%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $255-$260 on the final day of trading of t Jun 05 $1 $0 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 43% $0
other 23% −$5
tech 11% −$2
finance 8% −$6
politics 5% $0
world 5% $0
crypto 4% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the match end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Owen Goodman: 2+ saves BUY No 100¢ $1 2h
Edin Džeko: 3+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $1 2h
Edin Džeko: 1+ assists BUY No 97¢ $1 2h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 BUY Over 100¢ $1 3h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+6.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 100¢ $1 5h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $1 6h
Will Esteban Ocon achieve the fastest lap in Practice 2 at the 2026 F1 BUY No 100¢ $1 7h
Game 2: Any Player Rampage? SELL Yes 80¢ $0 11h
Game 2: Any Player Rampage? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 11h
Ian Happ: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $1 25h
Michael Busch: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $1 25h
Moisés Ballesteros: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $1 25h
Pete Crow-Armstrong: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $1 25h
Will Trump announce Kash Patel as the next Director of National Intell BUY No 100¢ $1 29h
Will Trump announce Devin Nunes as the next Director of National Intel BUY No 100¢ $1 29h
Will Trump announce Aaron Lukas as the next Director of National Intel BUY No 100¢ $1 29h
Will Trump announce Elise Stefanik as the next Director of National In BUY No 100¢ $1 29h
Will Trump announce John Eisenberg as the next Director of National In BUY No 100¢ $1 29h
Will Trump announce Chris Stewart as the next Director of National Int BUY No 100¢ $1 29h
Will Trump announce Sebastian Gorka as the next Director of National I BUY No 100¢ $1 29h
Will Trump announce Tom Cotton as the next Director of National Intell BUY No 100¢ $1 29h
Will Trump announce Robert O’Brien as the next Director of National In BUY No 100¢ $1 29h
Will Trump announce Stephen Miller as the next Director of National In BUY No 100¢ $1 29h
Will Trump announce Derek Harvey as the next Director of National Inte BUY No 100¢ $1 29h
Will Trump announce Amaryllis Fox Kennedy as the next Director of Nati BUY No 100¢ $1 29h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $1 30h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? SELL Yes 54¢ $0 39h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 10? SELL No 3¢ $0 2d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 10? SELL No 5¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -10.1% -18.7% 76% 0% -17.9%
≤30d 162 -8.2% -16.9% 64% 17% -17.0%
≤90d 163 -7.9% -16.7% 64% 18% -16.5%
all 163 -7.9% -16.7% 64% 18% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 18% -16.5%
10% -24.7% 13% -24.5%
15% -32.0% 10% -31.8%
20% -38.6% 7% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.92 · official $4.92 (match) · 510 history records