Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2ca…61e4 sports 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$225 (-4%) realized −$237 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%65W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$262now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days+$21
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$223
other 4% −$11
world 1% −$8
finance 1% −$30
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -28.3% -35.1% 33% 33% -11.6%
≤30d 34 -23.0% -30.4% 47% 41% -8.9%
≤90d 134 -13.7% -21.9% 49% 44% -14.5%
all 134 -13.7% -21.9% 49% 44% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 44% -14.5%
10% -29.4% 38% -22.7%
15% -36.2% 31% -30.1%
20% -42.5% 25% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$26 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$262
Realized−$237
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses65 / 69
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions3
Markets (closed)134 / 137
History coverage85d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 71¢ 70¢ $106 $106 −$1 (-1%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 22¢ 28¢ $44 $55 +$11 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $147 −$90 -61%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $93 +$97 +105%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $15 +$15 +105%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $11 +$9 +83%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $6 +$4 +62%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $3 −$3 -98%
Map Handicap: M80 (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) Jun 04 $14 −$14 -99%
Map Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (+1.5) Jun 04 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 04 $15 +$1 +10%
Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs Gaimin Gladiators (+1.5) Jun 03 $12 +$8 +62%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $15 +$15 +97%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $4 −$4 -98%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 03 $7 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 02 $20 +$7 +32%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $10 +$3 +32%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $26 +$19 +73%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $32 −$32 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $39 −$38 -98%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $23 +$20 +85%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 4 Winner May 24 $256 +$44 +17%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $118 +$130 +110%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner May 24 $173 +$17 +10%
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs Legacy (+2.5) May 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner May 24 $88 −$88 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $29 +$23 +79%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) May 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) May 22 $12 −$11 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 21 $73 +$33 +45%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - CS Asia Championship May 21 $93 −$3 -3%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Q May 21 $39 −$39 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 20 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-2.5) vs Team Falcons (+2.5) May 17 $20 +$20 +100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $37 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $8 +$36 +429%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 14 $25 +$15 +57%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $12 −$2 -13%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S May 13 $17 +$13 +72%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 13 $24 +$26 +113%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $10 +$8 +80%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) May 12 $14 +$5 +40%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St May 12 $12 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $11 −$7 -65%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $29 +$41 +140%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $18 −$17 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $107 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 56¢ $56 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 46¢ $46 2d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 12¢ $12 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 48¢ $93 3d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 4d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $45 7d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 61¢ $6 13d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY GamerLegion 54¢ $11 13d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY THUNDER dOWNUNDER 26¢ $3 13d
Map Handicap: M80 (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) BUY NRG 69¢ $14 13d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Liquid 48¢ $15 13d
Map Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (+1.5) BUY THUNDER dOWNUNDER 53¢ $11 13d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY THUNDER dOWNUNDER 21¢ $4 14d
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) BUY M80 67¢ $7 14d
Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs Gaimin Gladiators (+1.5) BUY Heroic 61¢ $12 14d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY GamerLegion 47¢ $19 14d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Liquid 50¢ $15 14d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY NRG 50¢ $15 14d
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL Sharks 51¢ $10 15d
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL Sharks 51¢ $4 15d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL B8 100¢ $46 15d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY B8 57¢ $10 15d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 54¢ $10 15d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne BUY BetBoom Team 75¢ $20 15d
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Sharks 38¢ $10 15d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY B8 57¢ $16 15d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 54¢ $22 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $39 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $262.07 · official $262.07 (match) · 418 history records