Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:30:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E2 0xe2c9…b7c0 other 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$849 (+2%) realized +$653 · open +$196
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate67%50W / 25L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$549per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$4,271now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days+$35
30 days+$222
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% +$229
politics 18% +$267
crypto 16% +$523
world 15% −$167
economics 6% +$152
finance 4% −$78
sports 2% −$966
tech 1% +$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.3% -8.3% 67% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 17 -14.9% -23.0% 59% 12% -6.8%
≤90d 31 -10.8% -19.3% 61% 13% -12.0%
all 75 +7.3% -2.9% 67% 13% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 13% -9.5%
10% -12.2% 9% -18.2%
15% -20.7% 9% -26.1%
20% -28.4% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$823) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$65 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$4,271
Realized+$653
Unrealized+$196
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses50 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions15
Markets (closed)75 / 90
History coverage195d
Avg bet$549
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $939 $938 −$1 (-0%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $398 $398 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $390 $394 +$4 (+1%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $375 $381 +$6 (+2%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 81¢ 82¢ $283 $289 +$6 (+2%)
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $250 $252 +$2 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 87¢ 98¢ $217 $246 +$29 (+13%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $220 $219 −$1 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 90¢ $168 $203 +$35 (+21%)
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? No 81¢ 88¢ $179 $193 +$15 (+8%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 92¢ $129 $134 +$5 (+4%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $64 $121 +$57 (+89%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $64 $106 +$42 (+66%)
Netanyahu out by July 31? No 98¢ 98¢ $98 $98 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? Jun 24 $58 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 24 $371 +$7 +2%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? Jun 24 $99 +$2 +2%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $823 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $348 +$26 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $432 −$1 -0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 09 $1,580 $0 -0%
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? Jun 09 $802 +$78 +10%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 09 $890 +$4 +0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $746 +$89 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 04 $20 −$19 -96%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? May 30 $749 +$58 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 28 $10 +$10 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $320 +$2 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $252 −$12 -5%
Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30? May 06 $192 +$8 +4%
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting? May 06 $320 +$3 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Apr 20 $1,672 −$66 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 19 $968 +$114 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 16 $50 −$8 -16%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $250 +$3 +1%
Blues vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 Apr 06 $1,158 −$936 -81%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 06 $1,854 +$47 +2%
Tim Walz charged by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $1,242 +$28 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 02 $100 +$17 +17%
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $150 +$6 +4%
Will France join the Board of Peace? Apr 02 $500 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 26 $664 $0 -0%
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? Mar 26 $100 −$3 -3%
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by April 30? Mar 22 $248 −$1 -0%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Mar 22 $56 +$64 +113%
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? Mar 21 $1,536 +$116 +8%
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Mar 19 $300 +$1 +0%
Will Trump cut off trade with Spain? Mar 16 $1,495 +$64 +4%
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? Mar 10 $237 −$21 -9%
SBF released from custody in 2026? Mar 07 $522 +$6 +1%
Will ZachXBT release his investigation on March 1? Mar 03 $299 +$1 +0%
Will ZachXBT release his investigation on February 27? Mar 03 $347 +$4 +1%
Will Hyperliquid reach $40 in February? Mar 03 $300 +$5 +2%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? Mar 03 $1,400 +$4 +0%
Kash Patel out by June 30? Feb 28 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump's tie be another color? Feb 25 $136 +$5 +3%
Will Donald Trump's tie be red? Feb 25 $121 +$51 +42%
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? Feb 25 $478 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Feb 24 $8 +$12 +156%
Will Sweden record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 24 $2,336 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Feb 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $940 1h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $300 1h
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $57 1h
Netanyahu out by July 31? BUY No 98¢ $98 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $398 1h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $378 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $176 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $176 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $180 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $110 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $60 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $5 30h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $14 30h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $5 30h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $38 30h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $96 30h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $92 30h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 34h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 38h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 38h
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $753 39h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 41h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 42h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 42h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $32 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,270.56 · official $4,270.56 (match) · 567 history records