Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:33:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E2 0xe2c9…6e0b sports 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$31 (+9%) realized +$36 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$71
other 12% −$24
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +2.2% -7.6% 44% 44% +17.5%
≤30d 9 +2.2% -7.6% 44% 44% +17.5%
≤90d 9 +2.2% -7.6% 44% 44% +17.5%
all 9 +2.2% -7.6% 44% 44% +17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 44% +17.5%
10% -16.4% 33% +6.2%
15% -24.5% 33% -4.0%
20% -31.9% 33% -13.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$9 · ×2.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.18 per $1 lost it wins $2.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized+$36
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 21
History coverage6d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Netherlands 50¢ 48¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 65¢ 43¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 12.5 Total Corners AND Panama vs. Croatia Jun 24 $20 +$21 +102%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $100 +$15 +14%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 +$20 +197%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $20 +$42 +206%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $20 −$14 -69%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 49¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 14h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 53¢ $10 14h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? AND Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Braz BUY $2 34h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will Korea Republ BUY $5 34h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 12.5 Total Corners AND Switzerland vs. Canada: BUY 40¢ $20 39h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY $5 46h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 12.5 Total Corners AND Panama vs. Croatia BUY 49¢ $15 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 12.5 Total Corners AND Panama vs. Croatia BUY 49¢ $5 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 87¢ $100 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Croatia (-1.5) AND Will DR Congo w BUY $5 2d
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score AND France leading at halft BUY 12¢ $10 3d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 33¢ $10 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $62 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 32¢ $20 4d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 40¢ $10 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Germ BUY 44¢ $1 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 19¢ $10 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London SELL EDward Gaming 18¢ $6 5d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? AND Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 BUY $2 5d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 41¢ $9 5d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $10 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 31¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.69 · official $84.69 (match) · 30 history records