Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:13:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2c4…1409 sports 159 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%4W / 154L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$4
other 23% −$2
politics 17% −$2
economics 15% −$1
crypto 4% −$2
tech 4% $0
culture 4% $0
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 158 -1.4% -10.8% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses4 / 154
Open positions1
Markets (closed)158 / 159
History coverage165d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $32 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 20 $78 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 20 $70 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 20 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 20 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 20 $70 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 20 $123 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 20 $151 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 20 $68 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 20 $161 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Feb 20 $103 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 20 $83 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 20 $76 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 20 $122 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 20 $200 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 20 $84 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 20 $40 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February? Feb 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 17 $82 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 17 $2 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 17 $116 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 17 $14 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 17 $155 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 17 $43 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 17 $168 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 17 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 17 $80 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 17 $36 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 17 $177 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 17 $83 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 16 $122 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 16 $173 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 16 $83 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 16 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 16 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 16 $40 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 16 $61 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 16 $42 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will the DHS shutdown last 10 days or more? Feb 16 $41 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 14 $4 $0 -0%
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 14 $44 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $32 1h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 95¢ $37 12d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 94¢ $37 12d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $32 20d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $32 20d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $41 31d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 94¢ $41 34d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 97¢ $33 118d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 97¢ $33 118d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 93¢ $35 118d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 93¢ $35 118d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $34 118d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $34 118d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $35 118d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 98¢ $35 118d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $36 118d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $36 118d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 93¢ $35 118d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 93¢ $35 118d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $39 118d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $39 118d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $37 118d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $37 118d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $36 118d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $36 118d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $34 118d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $34 118d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? SELL No 92¢ $37 118d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? BUY No 92¢ $37 118d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 94¢ $40 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.93 · official $31.93 (match) · 504 history records