Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E2 0xe2bf…75b5 world 83 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,064 (+1%) realized +$5,327 · open −$2,263
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate66%49W / 25L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$2,532per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$3,952now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,671
7 days+$3,716
14 days+$4,039
30 days+$5,624
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% +$3,864
other 8% −$774
politics 7% +$399
crypto 6% +$192
sports 2% +$140
tech 1% +$247
finance 0% −$38
economics 0% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +10.9% +0.3% 59% 41% -1.1%
≤30d 54 +5.0% -5.0% 67% 33% -6.0%
≤90d 74 +2.7% -7.1% 66% 31% -6.5%
all 74 +2.7% -7.1% 66% 31% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 31% -6.5%
10% ← realistic here -15.9% 20% -15.5%
15% -24.1% 15% -23.6%
20% -31.5% 14% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$4,112) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$214 vs −$166 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.53 per $1 lost it wins $2.53
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$3,952
Realized+$5,327
Unrealized−$2,263
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses49 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions9
Markets (closed)74 / 83
History coverage46d
Avg bet$2,532
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 90¢ 94¢ $1,909 $1,973 +$64 (+3%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $834 $905 +$71 (+8%)
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? Yes 83¢ 89¢ $562 $605 +$43 (+8%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 69¢ 67¢ $261 $253 −$9 (-3%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 69¢ 86¢ $100 $124 +$24 (+24%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 23¢ 9¢ $100 $40 −$60 (-60%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 35¢ 28¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-20%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes 67¢ 0¢ $2,349 $12 −$2,337 (-99%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 24¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 17 $50 −$10 -21%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 17 $7,701 +$2,396 +31%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $68 +$282 +415%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 16 $1,828 +$296 +16%
Will Donald Trump attend the G7 Summit? Jun 15 $5,809 +$333 +6%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,392 +$477 +34%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 15 $3,519 +$198 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $584 +$75 +13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $433 −$196 -45%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $641 −$506 -79%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $400 −$73 -18%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $50 +$60 +120%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $1,602 +$252 +16%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $606 +$132 +22%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 13 $40 +$52 +130%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 13 $300 −$129 -43%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $9,360 +$128 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $21 −$14 -67%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $5,268 +$136 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $900 +$100 +11%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $100 +$77 +77%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $3,555 +$77 +2%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 08 $31 −$19 -61%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $5,000 +$87 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $408 −$276 -68%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $222 +$124 +56%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 06 $13,002 +$26 +0%
Will Thailand vs. Kuwait end in a draw? Jun 05 $101 +$60 +60%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 05 $317 +$3 +1%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 05 $298 +$66 +22%
Prostejov: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Maxim Mrva Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $20 −$20 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $74 +$166 +224%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? Jun 01 $82 −$82 -100%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $11,271 +$256 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $14,098 +$953 +7%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 30 $8,261 −$1,319 -16%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? May 29 $240 +$267 +112%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 28 $4,112 +$74 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026? May 28 $5,557 +$289 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $4,354 +$178 +4%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 26 $600 −$407 -68%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 25 $10,512 +$619 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 24 $100 +$82 +82%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $422 −$238 -56%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $5,964 +$104 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 4¢ $40 1m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 80¢ $563 13m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 80¢ $24 13m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 80¢ $539 13m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 5¢ $50 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 90¢ $1,260 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 90¢ $1,259 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 95¢ $2,665 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $50 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 90¢ $31 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 90¢ $5 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 90¢ $144 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 85¢ $170 3h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 85¢ $1,192 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 84¢ $1,138 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 84¢ $11 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 84¢ $50 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 84¢ $20 5h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 84¢ $84 5h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 84¢ $84 5h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 84¢ $42 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 17¢ $68 6h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $44 7h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $57 7h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $29 7h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $1 8h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $34 8h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $67 8h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $5 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 83¢ $415 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,952.21 · official $3,952.21 (match) · 920 history records