Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:21:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

E2 0xe2bf…dc36 crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$5 (+7%) realized +$21 · open −$16

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip

Net edge+25%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate100%4W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$6per market

Trades / day27.0pace

Kalshi-fit64%portable

Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)+46.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+62.3%	+46.8%	100%	75%	+34.1%
≤30d	4	+62.3%	+46.8%	100%	75%	+34.1%
≤90d	4	+62.3%	+46.8%	100%	75%	+34.1%
all	4	+62.3%	+46.8%	100%	75%	+34.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover27.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+46.8%	75%	+34.1%
10% ← realistic here	+32.8%	75%	+21.3%
15%	+20.0%	75%	+9.6%
20%	+8.2%	50%	-1.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 42% · top 2 76% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +48% too few recent

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +62% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$3 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$19

Realized+$21

Unrealized−$16

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses4 / 0

Open positions7

Markets (closed)4 / 11

History coverage1d

Avg bet$6

Trades / day27.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	18¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	68¢	68¢	$6	$6	−$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	8¢	0¢	$4	$0	−$4 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	20¢	0¢	$5	$0	−$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	34¢	0¢	$5	$0	−$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	45¢	0¢	$2	$0	−$2 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Jun 16	$4	+$3	+84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Jun 16	$6	$0	+0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Jun 16	$2	+$2	+117%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$9	+$4	+48%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$6	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	BUY Down	45¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	SELL Up	56¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	SELL Up	94¢	$8	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$4	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	BUY Up	98¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	SELL Up	96¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	BUY Up	95¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	BUY Up	5¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	BUY Up	21¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	SELL Up	26¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	SELL Down	61¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	BUY Down	26¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Up	20¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	SELL Up	15¢	$6	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Up	11¢	$5	2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$13	2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	11¢	$2	2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$9	9h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	9h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$10	9h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.60 · official $18.60 (match) · 27 history records