Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:57:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E2 0xe2be…cefb other 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+0%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate13%13W / 89L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$10
politics 14% −$3
sports 8% +$7
tech 5% −$1
economics 3% −$1
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -50.1% -54.8% 0% 0% -25.2%
≤30d 15 -6.8% -15.7% 13% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 101 +2.7% -7.1% 12% 9% -9.5%
all 102 +3.0% -6.9% 13% 10% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 10% -9.5%
10% -15.8% 10% -18.1%
15% -23.9% 9% -26.0%
20% -31.4% 8% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×7.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses13 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)102 / 104
History coverage94d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $141 $141 +$0 (+0%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $58 $0 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $41 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $47 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $26 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $26 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $248 $0 -0%
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $47 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $44 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in May? Jun 02 $111 $0 +0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $33 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $27 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $246 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 23 $40 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 16 $211 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $214 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 14 $215 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $202 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $354 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $373 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $197 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $642 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $217 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $201 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $200 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $206 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $220 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 04 $202 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $773 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $218 $0 -0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $214 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $202 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $220 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $421 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 28 $208 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $201 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $201 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $446 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $350 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $381 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $785 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 16 $398 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $375 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $214 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $356 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 13 $214 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $204 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $223 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 1h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 15h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 17h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 46h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 2d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 59¢ $12 2d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $141 5d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $47 7d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $47 7d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $41 8d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $47 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $47 9d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 10d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 10d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 14d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 14d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $42 15d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $42 15d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 17d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 17d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $47 19d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 19d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 20d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 20d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 21d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 21d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $44 24d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $30 26d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.60 · official $187.60 (match) · 300 history records