Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:43:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2bc…2450 crypto 269 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$24,102 (-22%) realized −$24,102 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%90W / 179L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$415per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$903
7 days−$903
14 days−$903
30 days+$247
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$27,519
sports 5% +$2,371
other 1% −$651
world 1% +$373
finance 0% −$400
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -43.7% -49.1% 25% 25% -40.6%
≤30d 11 +13.7% +2.9% 45% 45% -3.0%
≤90d 49 -40.7% -46.4% 27% 27% -29.4%
all 269 -22.6% -30.0% 33% 33% -30.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.0% 33% -30.4%
10% -36.7% 32% -37.1%
15% -42.8% 30% -43.2%
20% -48.4% 27% -48.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$416 vs −$353 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24,102
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses90 / 179
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)269 / 269
History coverage116d
Avg bet$415
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 269 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $203 +$241 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 29 $338 −$325 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 29 $622 −$622 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 29 $416 −$120 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 29 $616 +$373 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 29 $309 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 29 $131 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 29 $27 −$25 -94%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $550 +$751 +137%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $100 +$295 +295%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $150 +$104 +69%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $10 +$13 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 29 $71 −$68 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $202 −$200 -99%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? Apr 22 $200 −$190 -95%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on April 14? Apr 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 13? Apr 22 $100 +$127 +127%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 14? Apr 22 $40 +$10 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 17? Apr 22 $150 +$59 +40%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 17? Apr 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Lakers vs. Warriors Apr 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 10? Apr 12 $194 +$267 +138%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 8? Apr 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 8? Apr 12 $400 −$400 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $90 −$90 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? Apr 08 $200 −$187 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 08 $200 −$189 -94%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 10PM ET Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10PM ET Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 10PM ET Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6AM ET Apr 08 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 23-29? Apr 08 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 2? Apr 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Apr 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 2? Apr 08 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Apr 08 $200 −$200 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 08 $331 −$331 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 1? Apr 08 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 1? Apr 08 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 08 $200 −$200 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $200 +$364 +182%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $376 +$440 +117%
Kings vs. Raptors Apr 07 $200 +$194 +97%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? Mar 23 $300 −$130 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $295 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $106 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $989 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $203 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $843 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 865 history records