Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:37:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2bb…fa2c other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 497d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$243 (-12%) realized −$217 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate11%4W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$1,057now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$54
14 days−$54
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$44
politics 5% −$106
sports 5% −$62
crypto 5% −$31
economics 1% −$7
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-38.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -38.0% -43.9% 0% 0% -43.9%
≤30d 2 -28.6% -35.4% 0% 0% -39.4%
≤90d 7 -25.5% -32.6% 14% 14% -33.6%
all 35 -31.6% -38.1% 11% 9% -31.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.1% 9% -31.4%
10% -44.0% 9% -37.9%
15% -49.4% 9% -43.9%
20% -54.4% 6% -49.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -70% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$22 · ×5.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

497d coverage
Net worth$1,057
Realized−$217
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses4 / 31
Open positions7
Markets (closed)35 / 42
History coverage497d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $305 $338 +$33 (+11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $269 $210 −$59 (-22%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $174 $193 +$19 (+11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $156 $121 −$35 (-22%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $87 $87 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $41 $63 +$22 (+53%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $142 −$54 -38%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $51 −$10 -19%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 31 $10 +$28 +279%
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-5.5) Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31? Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be blue? Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be purple? Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Joyce Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Will Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kanye name his token YZY? Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Milei out as President of Argentina before July? Mar 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Kanye launch a token on Solana? Mar 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Ron Paul be a member of the Trump administration? Mar 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Mar 22 $7 −$5 -74%
Longest Bill Ackman tweet of all time by Wednesday? Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Mar 22 $200 −$126 -63%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? Mar 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Mar 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Mar 22 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 21 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Jan 21 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 18 $80 −$80 -100%
Will 300-350k federal employees accept the buyout? Mar 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will 100-150k federal employees accept the buyout? Mar 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will 250-300k federal employees accept the buyout? Mar 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will fewer than 50k federal employees accept the buyout? Mar 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will 200-250k federal employees accept the buyout? Mar 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will 150-200k federal employees accept the buyout? Mar 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Will RFK remove raw milk ban? Feb 23 $8 $0 +2%
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 17? Feb 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Kanye tweet less than 200 times February 8-14? Feb 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Kanye tweet between 200-249 times February 8-14? Feb 10 $29 +$401 +1384%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $90 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $88 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $42 20d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $42 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $18 28d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 28d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $142 28d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $142 28d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $179 28d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $276 28d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $282 28d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 28d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 28d
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 74d
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-5.5) BUY Duke Blue Devils 31¢ $10 83d
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils BUY Connecticut Huskies 26¢ $10 83d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 83d
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 83d
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be blue? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 132d
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be purple? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 132d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY No 54¢ $10 142d
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 150d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 150d
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 150d
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 150d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 150d
Will Joyce Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 171d
Will Will Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 171d
Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? BUY No 70¢ $20 171d
Longest Bill Ackman tweet of all time by Wednesday? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 228d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,056.53 · official $1,056.53 (match) · 110 history records