Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:37:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2b8…8712 sports 1091 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,757 (-4%) realized −$1,620 · open −$137
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate59%642W / 446L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$383est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$360now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$957
7 days−$1,026
14 days−$1,045
30 days−$871
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$1,229
other 10% −$575
crypto 3% −$60
world 0% +$2
weather 0% +$2
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -13.0% -21.3% 47% 45% -22.1%
≤30d 248 -1.6% -11.0% 58% 52% -13.0%
≤90d 761 -11.8% -20.2% 55% 49% -15.6%
all 1088 -5.7% -14.7% 59% 53% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 53% -13.5%
10% -22.8% 41% -21.8%
15% -30.3% 27% -29.3%
20% -37.1% 20% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$24 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$360
Realized−$1,620
Unrealized−$137
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses642 / 446
Est. fees paid−$383
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1088 / 1091
History coverage156d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1088 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 85¢ 96¢ $321 $360 +$39 (+12%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 61¢ $176 $0 −$176 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $623 −$52 -8%
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 20 $55 −$54 -98%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $110 −$109 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $88 −$87 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 19 $110 −$108 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $282 −$279 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $151 +$131 +87%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $245 −$243 -99%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $337 +$59 +18%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $294 +$123 +42%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $117 +$99 +85%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $80 −$79 -99%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $57 +$48 +84%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $145 −$145 -100%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) AND Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $56 +$92 +165%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 18 $76 −$76 -100%
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 18 $55 −$55 -100%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 18 $100 −$80 -80%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 18 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $64 −$64 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $84 +$50 +59%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06 Jun 18 $61 +$23 +38%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $50 +$11 +23%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $86 +$23 +27%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $145 +$35 +24%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $130 +$92 +71%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $41 +$28 +70%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $105 +$55 +52%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $127 −$22 -17%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 17 $216 −$14 -6%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $67 +$74 +109%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $66 −$57 -87%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $135 −$70 -52%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $77 +$59 +76%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $44 +$33 +74%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $56 +$20 +36%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 15 $85 −$21 -25%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $154 −$65 -42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $216 −$100 -46%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 15 $111 −$111 -100%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 15 $92 −$92 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 15 $215 −$183 -85%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 15 $322 −$140 -43%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $178 −$178 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $20 −$15 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 85¢ $296 52m
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 86¢ $26 53m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Toronto Blue Jays 100¢ $322 54m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 77¢ $249 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 47¢ $249 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 69¢ $374 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 71¢ $55 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 58¢ $123 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 45¢ $123 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $159 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 45¢ $159 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 60¢ $220 5h
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Otto Virtanen 33¢ $55 6h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 65¢ $110 7h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 35¢ $33 11h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 60¢ $22 12h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 60¢ $3 12h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 60¢ $30 12h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 28¢ $110 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $282 28h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $282 28h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 62¢ $245 29h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 61¢ $51 31h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 50¢ $100 31h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $396 31h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexander Zverev 86¢ $2 33h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexander Zverev 85¢ $335 33h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexander Zverev 85¢ $1 33h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $333 33h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 64¢ $16 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $360.43 · official $360.43 (match) · 2827 history records