Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:38:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E2 0xe2b8…c88b politics 150 markets active 7h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,138 (+0%) realized +$1,138 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate19%28W / 122L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$1,716per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$35
14 days−$70
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$136
other 34% +$38
sports 13% +$1,175
economics 2% −$7
world 2% −$7
tech 1% $0
culture 1% −$4
crypto 1% +$5
finance 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.0% -9.5% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 43 +4.3% -5.6% 16% 9% -9.5%
≤90d 121 -5.2% -14.2% 12% 6% -9.4%
all 150 +2.2% -7.6% 19% 13% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 13% -9.1%
10% -16.4% 13% -17.8%
15% -24.5% 11% -25.8%
20% -31.9% 9% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,016) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$12 · ×7.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,138
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses28 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)150 / 150
History coverage121d
Avg bet$1,716
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 150 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $8,576 −$10 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $964 −$2 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 13 $229 +$3 +2%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,057 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $3,689 −$5 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 11 $1,140 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $4,093 −$5 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,039 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $7,907 −$11 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 09 $4,332 −$5 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $1,076 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $1,168 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $2,848 −$4 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $7,715 −$9 -0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,278 −$1 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $81 +$57 +70%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $2,434 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,419 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,088 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $32 +$27 +86%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $988 +$3 +0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $2,324 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $716 +$1 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $1,671 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $53 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $1,010 −$2 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $1,169 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $1,241 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $4,354 −$6 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $2,748 −$4 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $1,631 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $3,462 −$4 -0%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $76 +$70 +93%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 23 $53 +$74 +140%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $2,618 −$3 -0%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 23 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $1,245 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $6,403 −$5 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $4,824 −$7 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $4,397 −$5 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $1,545 −$2 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $3,367 −$4 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $1,679 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $4,308 −$4 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $3,369 −$4 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 09 $1,336 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,626 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $1,647 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,274 6h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,276 9h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,176 9h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,178 12h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $962 3d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $964 3d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,055 5d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,057 5d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,075 5d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,076 5d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $1,139 5d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $1,140 5d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,044 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,046 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,038 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,039 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,039 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,040 6d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,041 7d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,043 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY No 98¢ $229 7d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,075 8d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,076 8d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,167 8d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,168 8d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,422 9d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,424 9d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,161 10d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,163 10d
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Cincinnati Reds 45¢ $64 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 554 history records