Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:33:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2b7…cdb7 sports 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 591d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$165 (-8%) realized −$165 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%39W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$13
14 days−$31
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$235
sports 28% +$118
politics 6% −$17
weather 6% −$7
culture 5% −$28
world 5% −$9
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -1.8% -11.2% 9% 9% -16.7%
≤30d 27 -7.0% -15.9% 15% 4% -18.5%
≤90d 70 -48.4% -53.3% 7% 1% -52.5%
all 118 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 30% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 30% -17.1%
10% -18.6% 30% -25.1%
15% -26.5% 29% -32.3%
20% -33.7% 27% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$10 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

591d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$165
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses39 / 79
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)118 / 118
History coverage591d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 118 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 24? Jun 22 $47 −$3 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 24? Jun 22 $4 $0 -3%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $41 −$7 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23? Jun 21 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 23? Jun 21 $29 −$3 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 22? Jun 20 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on June 21? Jun 20 $0 $0 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? Jun 20 $1 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 21? Jun 19 $26 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? Jun 19 $4 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? Jun 18 $5 $0 -2%
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 14 $13 $0 -3%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 12 $34 −$4 -13%
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.0B? Jun 11 $33 −$5 -14%
Will Surf launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $32 −$8 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 01 $32 −$1 -4%
Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $3.25B and $3 May 31 $31 −$11 -36%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m May 30 $2 $0 -18%
Will Safepoint's market cap be between $1.1B and $1.3B at market close May 29 $29 −$2 -6%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 28 $2 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 28 $30 −$1 -5%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? May 27 $33 −$4 -13%
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? May 27 $33 $0 -1%
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 25 $2 −$1 -34%
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the May 24 $10 −$1 -8%
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Ray J vs. Supah Hot Fire May 24 $30 +$1 +4%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 23 $5 $0 +1%
Will Șerban Matei be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 22 $34 −$14 -41%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 21 $32 −$1 -4%
Will "Maid of Honor" - Drake debut week album sales be between 120k an May 20 $32 −$2 -6%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week May 19 $34 +$1 +2%
Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be between 120k and 140k May 18 $33 −$24 -73%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week May 18 $33 −$12 -37%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 15m? May 15 $31 −$2 -6%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $36 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 17, 2026? May 14 $32 −$1 -4%
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? May 12 $64 −$5 -8%
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Fenerbahce May 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Mobia Medical's market cap be less than $500M at market close on May 06 $27 −$4 -15%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 32m? May 06 $12 $0 -1%
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 39.0 on May 8, 2026? May 05 $21 −$1 -6%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Reds vs. Cardinals May 04 $10 −$10 -100%
49ers vs. Texans May 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-08? May 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Betis win on 2025-11-09? May 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? May 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-12-06? May 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-03? May 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2025-11-14? May 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 24? SELL No 68¢ $44 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 24? BUY No 71¢ $47 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 24? SELL Yes 36¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 24? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 3h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $34 13h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $41 14h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23? SELL No 71¢ $12 28h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23? BUY No 71¢ $12 28h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 23? SELL Yes 26¢ $23 29h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 23? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 30h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 23? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 30h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 23? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 30h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 22? SELL No 78¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 22? BUY No 79¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on June 21? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on June 21? BUY Yes 43¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 21? SELL No 70¢ $26 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 71¢ $26 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? SELL No 77¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 78¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? SELL No 73¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 73¢ $5 4d
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 63¢ $13 8d
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 63¢ $13 8d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL No 42¢ $30 10d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY No 47¢ $34 10d
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.0B? SELL No 54¢ $28 11d
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.0B? BUY No 62¢ $33 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 300 history records